Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
Unfortunately I was absent, therefore I’m a little late with
The situation in Uglegorsk is becoming more clear. Judging
by various sources of information, here’s what happened. After a short
artillery bombardment of Ukrainian positions (which was very effective), the assault
group broke into the city. The first odd thing here is that, aside from the
fortifications on the approaches to the city, there were practically no
Ukrainian troops inside (up to one infantry platoon and two tanks). Therefore
the city was taken almost instantly, and Novorossia forces were able to prepare
for Ukrainian counter-attacks. And then they set a TRAP. Novorossia forces let
the first wave of “liberators” into the city and surrounded them. The second
column was destroyed by rocket artillery salvoes as soon as it left Debaltsevo.
The first column was then simply finished off. Mopping-up operations continue,
but without help from the outside, the National Guard forces that entered the
town are DOOMED.
So I see the today evening situation something like this.
Novorossia forces can no longer be ejected from Uglegorsk. One is left with the
impression that the Ukrainian army and national guard cannot cover all the
sectors and are starting to crumble. Apparently reserves on this sector have
already been used up. All that’s left is to shorten the front line and attempt
to cover all the breaches. Therefore now the Ukrainian command faces the choice
of withdrawing (in order to reduce the half-pocket area in half) and conducting
a positional battle around Debaltsevo, or of trying to accept the risk and hold
everything. In that case the entire Ukrainian grouping may suffer a very rapid
P.S. To be honest, the whole Debaltsevo situation is
puzzling to me. The forces that were sent there could not have been used up so
quickly. Judging by Novorossia actions, they also did not anticipate such a
turn of events in Uglegorsk, but once they achieved a breakthrough they decided
to exploit it to the fullest. Apparently Ukrainian forces have major problems
with their combat effectiveness.