January 2, 2015
Rostislav Ishchenko for Prensa Latina
(Posted in Russian on R.I. VK page)
Translated from Russian by Kristina Rus
In 2014 the attention of the Russian society, and to a significant extent the international community was focused on Ukraine. This is understandable from the point of view of the dramatic events unfolding on this territory, but not correct, from the point of view of global processes, only a pale reflection of which were the events in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian crisis has become a logical continuation of the Syrian and Libyan crises, which began in 2011 and continued until now, and the Georgian crisis of 2008. All of these crises were stages of coordinated U.S. attack on Russia.
Actually the last six years, we are dealing with a global confrontation between Moscow and Washington, which entered an open phase in 2008 on the initiative of the USA and since then, developing incrementally. In these sequence the year 2014 became pivotal. Having suffered defeat in Georgia, stalled in the Middle East and North Africa, the USA attempted with one blow to turn the tide in their favor in Ukraine. With this goal an armed coup was organized in Kiev in an attempt to build a Nazi Russophobic state that would become the springboard for anti-Russian actions, and, ultimately lead to the destabilization of Russia and the destruction of its statehood.
As a result of complex military, political, diplomatic, economic and financial measures taken by the Russian leadership, the plan of Washington could not be fully implemented. However, the US did not back off and did not replace the point of the main focus, as it happened previously, when Georgia’s central place in American plans was replaced by Libya, then Syria, and finally Ukraine. Washington took the path of building up efforts, mobilizing by the end of 2014 all their resources and allies.
However, Russia managed to hold on, and the U.S. got bogged down in Ukraine and provoked by their actions internal destabilization of the EU. Thus, in essence, 2014 was a year of struggle for the initiative, during which Washington has continued to raise the stakes and mobilize new resources, and Moscow accepted each new offered level of confrontation. At the same time, conducted by Russia in the summer exercises involving a half-million troops from all military districts and practicing defense from a nuclear attack on Russia and executing a counter-nuclear strike were originally supposed to show the opponents that Russia is ready for any developments, including the highest level of confrontation.
It can be stated that by the end of 2014 all available U.S. resources were activated and thrown into battle. At the same time, Russia has retained the ability to attract new resources of its own and of its allies. As a result, a defeat of the US in the medium term became inevitable. Therefore, Washington currently tries with maximum economic pressure, as well as enabling technologies of internal destabilization of Russia, to tactically win a strategically lost war.
Such a high voltage, the US and its allies (primarily the EU, which has already begun the process of decomposition) is not capable of withstanding much longer. However, the next few months, most likely the entire first half of 2015 will be critical. At the same time there is an extremely high risk of accidental plunge into a full-scale military conflict between nuclear powers. If Russia will be able to withstand the pressure in the spring or summer, then by the fall (and possibly earlier) the United States should move towards a strategic retreat and will be unable to regain the initiative in the future.
As for Ukraine, thanks to the complete inadequacy of the post-coup leadership of the country and its inability to control and stabilize the internal political and economic situation, Kiev completely lost its function of a subject and became exclusively an object of application of outside (primarily American) efforts. The country turned into consumable material working for foreign geopolitical interests and as such, will be used in 2015.
Since, as mentioned, the US is in a rush to actively use all available resources to destabilize Russia, to most efficiently use the remnants of the Ukrainian statehood, they only can through the intensification of the civil war in Ukraine and its spilling to new territories. Therefore, we should expect that during 2015 the entire territory of Ukraine will be one way or another engulfed in the flames of civil war. Since there are no more internal forces for its (war) termination and restoring some semblance of normal life in Ukraine left, then only external armed intervention and the introduction of external management over whatever is left of Ukraine will stop this conflict.
Russia should definitely take part in the military-political settlement in Ukraine, because, first, it is already involved, and second, because it cannot allow someone else to take over its own backyard in the condition of a global conflict.
In general, the end of the current geopolitical conflict lays beyond 2015 and should lead to the elimination of today’s civilization, built on the principle of military-political and financial-economic dominance of the United States (which already do not live up to this role) and replacing it with a different, more equitable polycentric civilization of a multipolar world, in which the Anglo-Saxon countries, as the initiators of the current world conflict and the defeated party will be able to play the same role as the current Germany and Japan – important economically, but politically secondary. To build a new fair world de-americanization is needed not less than denazification after the World War II.
Rostislav Ishchenko, President of the Center of System Analysis and Forecasting