January 20, 2015
Translated from Russian by Kristina Rus
Not sure if I have time to write an article with detailed justification, therefore, thesis: Kiev needs another peaceful respite, otherwise the army would be destroyed in two to three weeks. For Russia it is very difficult, almost impossible “to force” the militia to peace without serious (at least to the borders of the regions) gains. For Kiev a retreat to the borders of the regions [Lugansk and Donetsk] without the collapse of the army is impossible. If the army would fall apart, stopping at the borders of the regions is not only pointless, but a crime – to leave the country to makhnovshina [anarchy]. Total return to peace is almost (except for a miracle) unrealistic. To prevent a rapid and catastrophic defeat and collapse of Kiev, and to try and to finally get something back USA and the junta need an excruciating provocation, in comparison with which the Boeing will be child’s play. This provocation can happen anywhere, but the best place for it is Kiev – most noticeable (from Kiev there is a chance to spread it all over Ukraine). I am afraid that those who fear the bombing of the capital of Ukraine, in case of approaching front line, don’t know what they should fear in reality. There are things, in comparison with which the artillery fire can seem like manna from heaven, and the shelling of Donetsk, although it sounds terrible – “new year’s fireworks”. If the junta will have enough time and opportunities for the organization of its new provocation, we will understand what it means “the living will envy the dead”. One hope is that for this demo version of the Third Reich as usual, something is not going to pan out. But one should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.