Ukraine After Poroshenko–Analysis by Aleksandr Rodzhers

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1/31/2015

Stormy weather in Kiev

By Aleksandr Rodzhers

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Something big’s hanging in Kiev’s atmosphere, saturated as
it already is by intrigue, lies, paranoia, and aggression. Something big, ready
to burst like an over-ripe pimple, a repository of all the scum that accumulated
over the last months.

But we won’t get infatuated with images, but rather focus on
various facts, from less to more important.

No. 1. Klichko encountered mass demonstrations against his
tenure as Mayor. Instead of trying to somehow improve his governance (though,
granted, it’s not to be expected with that brain and that team), he instead
organized yet another “threat neutralization center,” in other words, the
center for defending himself from Kievans and visitors.

No. 2. The once-again-disbanded Aidar is attacking the MOD,
using tires, breaking down doors, and other attributes of the Maidan.

No. 3. MVD officers (former Berkut soldiers) near Kharkov
beat up a junta propagandist, the chief editor of the falsehood-mongering informator.lg.
They did so in the presence of Stanko from Hromadske TV and another junta
journalist.

No. 4. The junta talking heads can’t get their story
straight as to what’s happening in Debaltsevo and Uglegorsk. Some say “everything
is under control,” while others say that Uglegorsk is under Novorossia control,
and in Debaltsevo there is panic and attempts at mass surrenders.

No. 5. Kolomoysky-controlled battalions are still raiding
business but even more nakedly than before, completely ignoring the central
authorities, both Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk. All representatives of central
authorities have been pushed out of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, this process
is also evident in Odessa and some other cities.

No. 6. The fourth wave of mobilization predictably has
failed. The attempts to sweep up everyone indiscriminately (but at the same
time not touching the actual Nazis, who sit in the rear and organize torchlight
parades, like in Ivano-Frankovsk), the junta is setting against itself the
masses.

No. 7. Kiev is being flooded with militants. There are more
and more of them, and they are becoming more active.

No. 8. GenStaff Chief Muzhenko said there is no Russian army
in Ukraine. Thus he destroyed a year-long propaganda campaign pursued by the
warmongers Yatsenyuk and Turchinov.

No. 9. Kaplin, a Poroshenko Block deputy who is always used
to flush others down the toilet, said that the Donbass war was started not by
Putin but by Turchinov and Poroshenko (which is absolutely correct).

No. 10. SecState Kerry personally flew to IMF to persuade
them to stop Kiev credits under the pretext of “absence of reforms.” It’s clear
to everyone that it’s because the junta can’t suppress the Donbass and transfer
the instability into Russia. That all of it happened so publically suggests
that Poroshenko is being flushed.

So we are getting a pretty clear picture: the “president of
peace” is being flushed. Yet another defeat, at Debaltsevo, will serve as the
trigger (the Nazis are turning up the heat, while the president is pretending
everything’s under control).

YuraSumy is amazed that Novorossia forces so quickly took
Uglegorsk. One of the possible explanations may be an arrangement, under which
Yatsenyuk-Turchinov deliberately flush the salient, in order to use it as an
excuse to topple Poroshenko. Will you be surprised? I won’t. Come to think of
it, a whole another “heavenly division” will be formed, the bloodthirsty and
drug-addled sectants will not do otherwise.

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I’ve always been saying that Poroshenko is a typical patsy
who will be sacrificed so that the others survive longer.

Poroshenko is taking this into consideration (though
belatedly, nobody with any smarts would have agreed to become president in a
situation like that), and is trying to neutralize Turchinov and Yatsenyuk,
including through Muzhenko and Kaplin. But, in my view, he has no chance.

Russian paratroops will not be sent to Kiev to save
Poroshenko (he does not deserve it and it’s too much trouble), Rostov is not
made of rubber, and nobody in the West needs a live Poroshenko. So he should
expect to meet Kaddafi’s fate, and in precisely that format, by being torn to
bits by “democratic mob” which will be shown on live TV.

He might have had a chance had he formed a Praetorian Guard
(study history, fatso!) capable of suppressing the oligarchy and establishing
him as a “democratic dictator and peacemaker” in his own right. Instead the
Ukrainian president played at senseless and fruitless intrigues in order to
control the Parliament, and got drunk abroad.

During a time of troubles power is not in the hands of those
to whom it is given on paper, but of those who have the most infantry.
Poroshenko never understood that (unlike the others, starting with Kolomoysky
and ending with Parubiy and Lyashko). While other oligarchs kept their personal
banditry away from the fighting, instead sending mobilized fools to get killed,
Poroshenko never formed his personal guard, instead relying on the power of the
state (which does not exist in any real sense). Stupidity is punishable,
therefore the outcome is predictable.

Now we can stop guessing whether Poroshenko will survive or
not, and instead start analyze what the balance of power in the Ruin will be
after his fall.

No. 1. The power will be even more concentrated in the
Turchinov-Yatsenyuk-Nalivaycheno triumvirate (under the control of US overseers
in most ministries).

No. 2. The government’s legitimacy will fall even lower
(even though some will consider the government “legitimate and democratic).
Mainly in the eyes of the Europeans, who will be even harder to convince to
support a coterie of neo-Nazis.

No. 3. The maintenance of power will be performed by armed
neo-Nazi formations which will brutally suppress any “anti-government”
demonstrations, including purely social ones.

No, 4. Kolomoyski will become even more uncontrollable.

No. 5. A big part of the “presidential” segment of the Rada
will be torn apart for its resources that will be used to reward others. The “opposition
block” will also take it on the chin, by tradition. Because they are the most
dense and the most divorced from current realities, existing in order to
survive and incapable of timely reactions.

No. 6. US “hawks” are adopting this variant out of
desperation because they “can’t topple, but also can’t not topple.” If they
lose the Ukraine game, they will seem like losers before the entire planet
which will know that Russia can outplay at will. But they can no longer win.
Continuing what is destined to be a losing policy toward Ukraine, they are also
losing their position in Europe. It’s a lose-lose situation, and Washington is
thoughtlessly adopting the more painful variant (quite possibly Obama’s “self-esteem
sessions” have had their effect and he genuinely believes that he tore Russia’s
economy “to shreds.”_

Overall, further support of the junta by the US after Poroshenko’s
overthrow will cause the US additional reputational losses and the EU refusal
to participate in this misadventure any longer (which amounts to leaving US
control).

The Kiev junta post-Poroshenko, even if it receives a
certain amount of aid from the US (money and weapons), it will continue to sit on
a one-legged stool, the leg being the neo-Nazi battalions.

In conclusion, either variant will lead to an improvement:
if Poroshenko holds on (which is unlikely) then he will have to wipe out all the
“hawkish” groupings, and if not, it will become impossible the true dictatorial
nature of the Kiev regime. In any event, the Ukrainian society will continue to
acquire immunity to Nazis.

Translator’s Note:
Rodzhers is probably too optimistic about
Yatsenyuk’s and Turchinov’s chances of survival. They have no neo-Nazi battalions
of their own—what would keep them in power? About the only thing they can hope
for is that Yarosh, Beletsky, etc. (and that’s assuming they won’t start
exterminating each other) need an internationally acceptable figurehead to
present to the outside world. Concerning Kolomoysky’s “unruliness”—his recent
actions suggest that he, and his battalions that Rodzhers assumes would be the
bulwark of the post-Poroshenko regime, has other ideas in mind, namely the
consolidation of control over Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, and a few other parts
of the country but not necessarily including Kiev. But this also assumes that the
neo-Nazi battalions he formed and funded remain loyal to him, instead of using
his wealth as a “resource.” The neo-Nazis have made too big a deal about
ridding Ukraine of oligarchs to remain loyal to him.
 

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