How much UAF equipment made it out of Debaltsevo?


 The most valuable cargo [truck tires, so useful in overthrowing governments in Kiev!]


UAF Breakout from Debaltsevo—Quantitative Analysis

By Dragon_First_1

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Several UAF units carried out a breakout from Debaltsevo
region on February 18. The units exited with weapons and equipment. Maps
showing the routes from Debaltsevo to Svetlodarsk and Artemovsk will be posted

In the meantime your humble servant, ignoring the
tactical-operational and political details of this event, will attempt to
calculate the amount of armored vehicles that the UAF managed to take out of
the Debaltsevo region.

[Most of the post is a barrage of photographs taken from the
Ukrainian media, which covered the “planned withdrawal” in excruciating detail,
so that virtually every vehicle that came out was photographed several times.
It seems likely those forces on the photographs are “it”, and that no other
units made it out.—J.Hawk]

The total count is as follows:

Tanks: 6. In other words, two tank platoons.

BMP and MT-LB: 26. BTR-80: 2. That’s an incomplete motorized
rifle battalion.

SP howitzers: 3. Command vehicles: 4. That’s less than an
artillery battery.

One BM-21 Grad launcher.

Two UR-77 combat engineer vehicles [used to clear minefields
using line charges, which makes them useful as fire support vehicles, though
only at very close range].

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BRDM-2: 5. That’s half of a reconnaissance company.

If we assume that perhaps some vehicles did not make it
before camera or video lenses (which were present in large numbers and which
shot everything that moved), we can make an allowance that the actual number of
armored vehicles that made it out of the cauldron is greater by 20-25%. Plus a
fairly large number of trucks and other wheeled vehicles.

So what was it? A full-strength battalion task force, or
remnants of several different UAF units?

For reference purposes:

The surrounded UAF grouping included the following

Up to two battalion tactical teams of the 128th
Mountain Infantry Brigade

No fewer than two company tactical teams of the 30
Mechanized Brigade

Subunits of a battalion tactical team of the 25th
Air Assault Brigade

11th Separate Mechanized Battalion

25th “Kievan Rus” Mechanized Battalion

40 “Krivbass” Mechanized Battalion

Subunits of the 8th Special Operations Regiment
and the 101st General Staff Security Brigade

A company tactical team of the 17th Tank Brigade

One company of the 2nd Right Sector Battalion

Subunits of the Svityaz Police SWAT unit.

Subunits of the Lvov police battalion

At least three artillery battalions

At least one rocket artillery battalion

J.Hawk’s Comment: So it would seem that the UAF managed to
extract the equivalent of one battalion tactical team worth of heavy equipment,
though likely more personnel exited on trucks or on foot. By comparison, the
Debaltsevo grouping was equivalent to 6-8 maneuver battalions, supported by
several artillery battalions. So it was a sizable defeat for the UAF, and the
artillery losses will be especially painful, considering its importance in the
battles of the last two months. The psychological impact of the Debaltsevo
Debacle is still to be assessed.

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