Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
[Yurasumy’s post is largely a commentary to a short video
clip which shows a Ukrainian officer by the name of Yuriy Kasyanov talk about
the state of the Ukrainian army. He says that the Ukrainian army is doing well
from the perspective of personnel, since its units are now filled with
hardened, experienced fighters thanks to the continuous fighting. This in
itself is a debatable statement-we know that mobilization is unpopular, that
desertion is a major problem, and that the level of training is very low. The
real problem, in Kasyanov’s estimate, is that the military is running out of
ammunition and heavy equipment because it does not produce either on its own,
at least not in sufficient quantities to make up for the heavy usage, and this
has led to the loss of Uglegorsk and the Debaltsevo encirclement.]
The guy said what the specialists already know and the “hurrapatriots”
on both sides are afraid to admit. The UAF is half-dead. Very soon the “half”
part may soon drop off. It’s hard to imagine that even last summer people like
that were threatening to crush their enemies into the asphalt and march all
the way to Moscow.
Azov is running out of gas. There is no artillery ammunition
at Debaltsevo. Heavy equipment is breaking down and there is too little of it
to go around.
P.S. And it’s been only six months. What will be left of
this military machine in another six months?
J.Hawk’s Comment: I suspect the main cause of Poroshenko’s sudden willingness to have an “unconditional” ceasefire was
the inevitability of sizable military defeat should the fighting continue for
much longer. UAF’s equipment and ammunition reserves are not infinite. Contrary
to what one occasionally sees in the media and the social media, Ukraine is not
receiving large-scale shipments of arms from NATO or anywhere else. There are
cases of individual units procuring equipment and weapons in the West on their
own initiative and using their own funding, plus the occasional dumping of obsolete gear by various NATO countries. But nobody is willing to replenish
UAF’s stocks of armored vehicles and ammunition that have been expended in two
bloody campaigns. Even in the US it seems to have dawned on everyone that
Novorossia will not be defeated militarily, and any NATO intervention will be
met by a Russian escalation which will simply end the Ukrainian state before
the NATO aid has any effect on the ground.
The prospect of military catastrophe is likely what
Poroshenko had in mind when he said at Minsk that if no agreement is reached,
the situation will get out of control—the UAF is rapidly reaching the end of
its tether. Ukraine has burned up its gold and currency reserves, it is facing
strict IMF-imposed austerity, so it’s rapidly running out of the means,
military and financial, for fighting the war. So can the fighting continue
Why, yes it can!