Then, now, tomorrow — an Italian view

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Analysis by “Rischiocalcolato”

Published January 29 in 

Centro di Iniziative per la Verita e la Giustizia

Translated from Italian by Tom Winter


Preamble by Father Ambrose 

 An article as interesting as it is troubling on signs of failure of the Kiev junta.

Here, in brief, what you can read in this article:

—The increased volume of hysterical screaming from Kiev and the western countries over the nonexistent  “Russian invasion”;

—A law allowing Ukrainians of military age to extend their stay in Russia to avoid conscription;

—Closure of 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the sack of Debaltsevo (a curious parallel with the encirclement of Nazi invaders 70 years ago);

—The recruitment of 16 and 17-year-olds into the Ukrainian army (anyone remember the Hitler-Jugend?);

—The resistance to the recruiters, literally with pitchforks (even in western Ukraine);

—A grotesque version of history being taught to the children;

__The law (in the photo) that authorizes shooting soldiers who desert, without trial.

The final comment of the article we leave as a (bitter) surprise for the reader. Meanwhile we show you, in the following clip, what remains of the Convent of the Icon “Ivirskaja” of the Mother of God near Donetsk. [clip removed by user] 

— Father Ambrose


Many small signs show that the war in Donbass is not faring well for the army of Kiev, and the proof is the baying against Russia of the western governments. From every direction again arise the calls for “sanctions”, the rating agencies, pointed like cruise missiles to to their work, and the English and the Poles even press for cutting Russia out of the SWIFT banking system.

This would not be likely to succeed, it would be a proper declaration of war, but the option remains on the table. Also Merkel is using the stick and the carrot, or rather threats, of toughening the sanctions to promises to open a free market exchange with Russia. Many have noted that Greece and Hungary are not on board, and this will give many problems to these two countries, but that is another story.

Many things are happening on the front inside Ukraine

The area of Debaltsevo is highlighted, evidencing a “sack” 

which enters deep into separatist territory — the best way to assign soldiers to slaughter.

—The “cauldron” of Debaltsevo, the 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers present in the zone, practically surrounded, are giving signs of slowing down; there are reports of desertions or even of soldiers passing over to the enemy, weapons and all. The Russian President Putin has signed a law that permits draft-age males to stay in country on an extended basis, even though a recently passed immigration law would have forbid it. In practical terms, it is a way to accommodate deserters.

—The Kiev government has begun to exhibit signs of unease: the parliament has practically unanimously passed a law certifying that it’s “Russian Aggression”, an all but declaration of war. A strange war where the Ukrainians can travel without problems in Russia, but Russian men from 16 to 60 can’t pass into Ukraine without solid reason, and only after close attention at the frontiers, for fear lest they join up with the ‘terrorists.” A rule particularly idiotic, given that the territory controlled by the separatists has a border with Russia hundreds of kilometers long.

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—To understand what is going on, and a for a few strategic matters, we go back to the history of the Second World War, in present-day Ukraine, in Soviet territory where they fought some of the fiercest battles of the war, when the Russians at first made a stubborn resistance against the German invaders, and then made a reconquest of the occupied territory, but at a horrible price, in 1943-44. I have already spoken about the Ukraine propaganda that viewed the defenders of the Donetsk airport, the “Cyborgs” as “descendents” of the defenders of Brest and of Odessa, [Notes on Donetsk Airport] where for months the survivors of the garrisons stayed underground and fought against the Germans. 

In the photo above you can see a clipping from the Chicago Tribune for September 9, 1943, that talks about the furious combat inside the town Stalino, now Donetsk, to reconquer the city, which was the HQ of the German Command for the Army of the South. The situation changed when the panzers and the German troops got closed in a sack near the city of Debaltsevo and in the neghboring villages (Note the arrows “Reds take three towns in Stalino area). The propaganda of the separatists recalls these events with the cry: “Let’s encircle the Nazis like we did 70 years ago!”

A thought must go also the the survivors of the Italian Divisions Pasubio and Torino, that found themselves right in the middle of the fighting. Memorable to note that in those days the Americans considered those areas Russian territory — oh well, then they were allies. I forgot. 

Here is one being sworn in

Youths of sixteen and seventeen in the military academies scattered throughout the country must go to the front to fight, even though their families are ready to do anything to prevent it. Further, in the countryside recruiters are literally being greeted with pitchforks, even in the more “patriotic” regions in the west. The result is that the fourth wave of mobilization that was to include men from 16 to 60 years, and women up to age 50, has produced scant results. 

It seems that nobody wants to fight, and that many prefer to escape to Russia, the “Aggressor Country.”

—The Ukrainian children in the zone controlled by Kiev learn a version of history rather different from the one we are accustomed to. Look at how this kid answers, at Slaviansk, a city momentarily under the Ukraine government when they ask Who are the Nazis? Also the Poles seem to fall under this same virus, but that, as one says, is another story.

Another sympatico measure, allowing officers to shoot deserters, without trial.

Further, the latest news reminds me of something which should have happened some time ago: All this should presage the imminent crash of the Kiev government, an economic, political, and military rout. But there is still a big problem. There is no authoritative leader or any Ukrainian politician capable of taking the reins of the country after the fall and raising it up in some way.

All the various politicians are too corrupt, or too nazi, or too tightly tied to Russia, or too stupid. Some have two or even three of these defects, including those now in the government. In Russia they handled this problem by putting in power an obscure functionary of the Soviet apparatus, like V.V. Putin, a kid noted for his gifts, but not powerful, at least at the beginning. Behind him, there were no oligarchs or potentates, rather instead, functionaries of the bureaucracy of the Russian Empire, and before that, of the Soviet one, with centuries and centuries of experience. They had held the reins of power since 1600, and it was about time for somebody to do something. In Ukraine, a country only born 23 years ago, there exists nothing of the sort; the Soviet functionaries have been removed by various purges, leaving in power people both incompetent and corrupt.

In recent years several diverse types have come into power, some tied to the Soviet past, and accused of being “Russophiles” (who knows why), others, like Tymoshenko, who started out as the owner of a video rental store, or the chocolatier Poroshenko, have come to power from the realm of the oligarchs, or rather, from the nouveau riche, sprung from the plundering of the country’s resources, when they were privatized at some small fraction of their actual value.

The just wrath of the people of Ukraine, impoverished by decades of the pillage of the country, is directed against Russia, rather than against the politicians and the local oligarchs. Personally, I was hoping rather in the lower ranks of the army, the classic “revolt of the colonels” that might put everything in place. 

Unfortunately, the imbecility of the top levels of Kiev’s military makes me presage the worst. How will this huge mess end up?  Sadly, I think it will come to a bad end, with the Balkanization of the country. To be able to rebuild, they will first have to destroy everything, cities, persons, factories, and the society itself.

by “Calculated Risk” [rischiocalcolato]

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