Kolomoysky is creating his own GenStaff (Clarification of
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
The next moment of honesty from Yarosh:
“The new HQ will be joined by about 17 various volunteer
battalions, subordinated to the MVD and the MOD, and of course the Right Sector
We have already created a unique operational staff. It will
be located in Dnepropetrovsk. It will perform intelligence data exchange,
mutual assistance, military-technical cooperation, and so on. We may also form
certain operational formations at the front, after all we often have the best
operational information about what is happening on this or that sector of the
front simply because our battalions are there. We can make recommendations to
the General Staff in order to carry out operational and tactical missions,”
As we can see, the creation of a new command entity for part
of the UAF and MVD is proceeding at full pace, and it will be based in
Dnepropetrovsk. The formation will in practical
terms means the formation of a Dnepropetrovsk khanate, and an increase
in Kolomoysky’s influence in intra-Ukrainian power struggles, which will
violate the current balance of power.
Even if there is an agreement reached in Minsk today, which
I don’t believe will happen (if anything is signed, it will not be done
seriously or for long, unfortunately), the break-down of the UAF and MVD into
two components will be de-facto concluded. Then UAF formations will have to
choose a side, either with Poroshenko or not with Poroshenko.
It won’t happen today or tomorrow, but very soon everyone
who is fighting against LPR/DPR will have to make that choice, and then the
Ukrainian civil war will spread with new force to new territories. Because
according to the Washington central, it’s not enough to plunge the Donbass into
chaos; all of Ukraine must be affected. And unfortunately the people of Ukraine
are following that path.
P.S. US plans do not
foresee the war in Ukraine ever ending. If it ends, it will be a defeat for
Washington. They will never agree to that. I am certain of it.
J.Hawk’s Comment: It’s not a given that Yarosh is Kolomoysky’s
creature. After all, it is Yarosh who controls the Right Sector, and Kolomoysky
has no means of replacing him with anyone else. The location of the parallel
Right Sector HQ in Dnepropetrovsk does not necessarily imply Kolomoysky’s
control over the enterprise. Instead, it may mean Yarosh is being planted there
to keep an eye on Kolomoysky whose political reliability is probably suspect. Though it is possible that Yarosh is happy to collect Kolomoysky’s money in exchange for “protection” from Poroshenko, and that the relationship between the two is strictly business, with the extent of Yarosh’s loyalty to Kolomoysky being limited by the latter’s cash reserves. To be sure, Yarosh very recently stated that he made a mistake by supporting Poroshenko during and after the Maidan.
Aside from that, one cannot help but agree with Yurasumy’s
analysis. It would appear that the volunteer battalions opted on their own to
join the Right Sector’s command structure, even though they are presumably
still attached to regular army brigades. No word on any regular army or
National Guard formations opting to come under Yarosh’s command—they are
presumably remaining loyal to Poroshenko. But since the volunteer battalions
are “legal” and therefore have access to all manner of military equipment, the “military-technical
cooperation” simply amounts to a back-door way of accomplishing what Yarosh
could not do openly, namely ensuring access to large quantities of military
equipment. Because now the volunteer battalions will be able to pass their
weapons to the Right Sector, then request replacement (by claiming destruction
during combat or some such thing) from the MOD. It’s a big win for Yarosh and
the Right Sector. It may well be that, by being based in Dnepropetrovsk, they intend to carve out a role for themselves as a “military frontier” of sorts, by keeping the unrest down in the border areas and also providing security at the border itself.
As to the US policy in Ukraine, I would have to disagree
with Yurasumy here. The US seems to be clearly deferring to the EU since at
least the Munich Conference. Senior EU officials were adamant that even should
this round of Minsk talks fail, it will not change their mind concerning arming
of Ukraine. The US seems to be respecting those wishes, restraining to
providing support equipment (apparently communications equipment, artillery
radars, and associated training) rather than actual weaponry.