March 28, 2015
Translated by Kristina Rus
More information is coming regarding my conclusion about the wave nature of development of events in the coming 8-9 months.
Looked again at the situation.
The Fed carefully monitors the world’s response to the actions in the Middle East. The main task is to prepare so that people won’t believe it as long as possible. To avoid panic in the markets, an uncontrolled panic!
Now they are preparing a coalition against Iran on the one hand (for a future attack), and at the same time try not to raise oil prices (to contain Russia).
The creation of a coalition against Iran, requires some action in the oil region, and this causes panic of fund speculators at the oil market. Therefore, the steps will be in waves.
Or you can call it “sneaking”. For a discreet approach to the target. This is an animal tactic. I have always said that the Fed is not run by a human. Predators can, sometimes, act to demonstrate that they don’t care about the victim or are interested in something else.
Took a step – calmed down. And again. As an example, the situation in Yemen. Attacked Yemen, prices jumped, Goldman Sachs (the Fed) gave a signal – “the situation in Yemen will not have a noticeable effect on the deliveries of oil, because the volume of exports from the country is insignificant, and tankers can bypass the territorial waters of Yemen. Last year, Yemen produced an average of 145,000 barrels per day” – the price went down.
If suddenly the world suspects something, the Fed has a powerful tool – to dramatically raise the interest rate and wash the financial capital from the oil market. What will likely happen closer to the fall, when it will be impossible to hide the attack on Iran.
But, it will hurt the stock markets, which in the U.S. are very strongly linked with the financial system , which is very much linked to the real economy, I’m talking about reaction speed. That is, the dollar can shoot up, and then the whole system can collapse and the dollar will drop like an autumn leaf.
Also, in order to proceed with this tactic – the Fed may still remove the sanctions on Iranian oil exports, it will be a powerful signal for the drop in oil prices.
The policy of our [Russian] Central Bank and the authorities, which is now aimed at holding the exchange rate and inflation by reducing the ruble supply, and hence at the expense of economic decline, in hopes of a rebound in oil prices due to the upcoming war in the Middle East, may be risky, in light of the above. If only our authorities themselves will not go for the increase of volatility in the Middle East. But, Putin has always presented the image of the absence of destructive initiative on behalf of Russia, only as a response.
Criticizing the authorities, I always offer solutions, and I wish them success, because of sympathy.
We will continue to monitor the situation.
PS It is not easy for me with my German roots and the Russian language. I feel that the text is sometimes chopped, and spelling.
And regarding the coalition against Iran, which I predicted in the beginning of March, the headlines:
“Saudi Arabia declared war on Yemen “to the victorious end” “
“Iran is entitled to peaceful nuclear energy program, but not for the creation of a nuclear bomb, said the French authorities”
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – “The Head of the Federal Reserve System, Janet Yellen made it clear that the U.S. Central Bank will start raising interest rates this year, even before the normalization of inflation and the labor market, but stressed that the tightening of monetary policy will be gradual.”
“The Iranian Foreign Minister noted the great progress in negotiations on its nuclear program”
Again, 100% correct.
This is how they will continue to seduce the two chicks: Iran and Russia, getting into their interests until they are completely stripped.