April 3, 2015
Translated by Kristina Rus
Reservists can be different. The military reservists are meant to beef up the numbers of the armed forces. Political reservists are brought to the scene when it is necessary to drastically change the tactics or strategy of warfare.
It is no longer a secret, that the main coordinator of Maidan was the then head of administration of President Yanukovych, Sergey Levochkin. It was he who organized the beating of “oni-zhe-deti” [“they-are-just-kids” – a term given to the students who were beaten on camera to fuel popular outrage at the authorities and beef up Maidan – KR]. He blocked many of the decisions of the authorities, making the government clumsy and helpless. For this the former right-hand of Yanukovych was not only left in the Ukrainian politics, but eventually became one of the backstage leaders of a powerful parliamentary faction – the “Opposition bloc”. For the ordinary maidanites, who did not know all the ins and outs of the coup, it was confusing and shocking, that such a notorious figure as Levochkin not only didn’t lose his business and was not arrested, but continues to very effectively influence the Ukrainian political processes. Levochkin brought dozens of “his” deputies not only under the guise of an “Opposition bloc”, but also under the cover of “Poroshenko bloc”. Which means that sooner or later this bunch was supposed to fire.
While the US focused on the Ukrainian “hawks”, Levochkin and Co. were sitting in reserve. Then a military solution in Ukraine began to bring US only disappointment and losses. That is why Kolomoisky went into reserve defiantly and with a bang, and was quickly replaced with former allegedly “Pro-Russian” opposition, who were thrown into the fight.
The prestigious “Champion Hall”, located in the building of the Olympic stadium, on Tuesday, March 31 was serving canapés with brie cheese and strawberries, and “Napoleon” deserts. And the parking lot in front of the entrance was a show room of the latest products of the global automotive industry – dozens of latest Mercedes, Rаng Rovers and Lexuses.
“Champion Hall” is one of the favorite locations of the presidential party “Poroshenko Bloc”. Here the powers held conferences on the eve of early presidential and parliamentary elections.
But this time the guests were different. The former members of the Party of Regions, most of whom are now MPs from the Opposition bloc, presented their “shadow”, or – the opposition government.
The essence of American game is simple and logical. Since the Russophobia strategy failed and the junta began to lose the military and most importantly the ideological campaign, the conflict needs to be quickly frozen and a neutral and even slightly pro-Russian government needs to be brought to power in Kiev. To fix the results and in a relaxed atmosphere prepare for the new phase of the struggle. This is why Washington was not against Minsk-2 and is doing everything for the agreement to work. The next step is happening right now. Kiev must be cleaned (only media-wise of course) from the signs and ideologists of Nazism and ultra-nationalism. Kolomoisky is out and a witch hunt has begun for the “illegal” volunteers who … do not fit into the new scheme (they were warned, that they are just expendable).
Simultaneously, the third act is prepared. Those who’ve already proved themselves (pro-American wing of the Party of Regions) must ideologically head the South-Eastern regions in the fight against nationalism and fascism. This is why the so-called shadow government was created with great pomp, which will sooner or later be embraced by Poroshenko, stretching a hand of reconciliation.
But this is the strategy. How can this be done in practice?
Next, I suggest a scenario, but do not insist that it will be done exactly this way (not excluding, that the plan will be sabotaged by Moscow). There may be options, but there is one goal: to bring to power a “government of national reconciliation”, which will be almost completely controlled by the West.
Under the present composition of Verkhovnaya Rada such operation is not possible. Therefore a crisis is necessary, which will result in a resignation of the government and a dissolution of the parliament. Whether the basis of the crisis will be the economy or a new military defeat on the front, I don’t know. Possibly, both at the same time. In the end, early parliamentary elections will bring to power the “sane” forces, who will agree to everything that is stated in the Minsk agreements and possibly more. They will demonstratively kick out the outright idiots who screwed up in the first year of power after Maidan and will produce many revelations (hanging on them all the “dead dogs”), which will turn the opinion of the Ukrainian people in the right direction. And by winter, the soil will be ready for the next act of the Ukrainian tragedy – “reconciliation” under American supervision.
These are briefly the milestones, as I understand it.
It is for this reason, that ALL the former Ukrainian oligarchs were united (who were not stained by outright aiding the fascists). And they were “able to agree” on all key issues (apparently helped by the “sponsors”).
It is noteworthy that the Opposition bloc is actively preparing not for the local elections, which are planned in October, but – the parliamentary, which are not even planned yet. Moreover, “the new regionals” openly discuss their future victory and that in this case the term “opposition” would be inappropriate.
Preparations for elections are already underway. Several sociological teams conducted surveys which showed the necessary results. The “hawks” supposedly have completely lost their positions, and the main future allies – “Poroshenko bloc” and the “Opposition bloc” – will be able to form a “government of national reconciliation”.
The feasibility of these plans. Quite realizable under one condition. I do not see Russia being interested. Without Russia’s consent (as without the consent of the US) the resolution of the conflict through compromise is impossible. If somehow Russia’s interests will be taken into account, then – Yes. But so far I don’t see it.
My position. I really do not like this plan. At first glance this is an out of the war for today. But with a probability of almost 100% this is a postponed war. Today, the pro-American forces are loosing this fight, and therefore, in any way are trying to fix their achievement, to work on mistakes and gather strength to strike again. People will once again will be deceived, and their good intentions used by scumbags to achieve their goals.
P. S. Something tells me that this plan will fail, like all the previous plans of the West