April 20, 2015
By Vladimir Lepekhin
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
Not even the most modern weapons, nor the toughest military
instructors will ensure the UAF’s victory over the Novorossia militia. The UAF
is doomed to defeat, according to Vladimir Lepekhin.
DPR MOD representatives announced there were 59 ceasefire
violations over the last 24 hours by the UAF. Such systematic violations take
place not only on the Donetsk sector, but the Lugansk one as well.
That’s the background for the arrival of 300 US paratroopers
“to train three National Guard battalions”. There were announcements that
Canada was going to send 200 of its troops to Kiev, and there are already 800
legally employed Americans and 75 British citizens, plus several hundred
(illegal) foreign military mercenaries.
We know the purpose of this foreign legion in Ukraine. But
what is the junta hoping for? For victory over the independent Novorossia or
only for maintaining power with the help of US and British bayonets?
The UAF: where its power resides
The main source of power of the Ukrainian military machine,
which includes the army, the National Guard, volunteer battalions, foreign
mercenaries and other militarized structures and subunits, is in its reliance
on wide array of means of waging war in pursuit of “Ukrainianness”.
This machine is based on lies, cruelty, direct terror, the use
of forbidden weapons (I think that if the regime had nuclear weapons it would
have used them by now), and the lowest imaginable methods of warmaking, such as
the destruction of the civilian population, hostage-taking, torture, and the
murder of prisoners of war and opponents.
This machine is not intended to fulfill the Minsk agreement
or any other agreement. It is not especially subordinate to the political
leadership, but instead is purposed for, to some extent or another, the
destruction of everything that does not fit into the “one state—one nation—one
The power of the Ukrainian military machine also resides in
the fact that it is backed by the entire “civilized world” which is rendering
Kiev moral, political, financial, military, and legal support. The West had,
for all intents and purposes, issued Kiev a license to commit all imaginable
crimes, including the rocket artillery bombardment of civilian housing on the
Donbass, the killing of journalists and politicians in Kiev itself.
The West deployed the world press in support of the junta,
which managed to convince even many Russians living in Ukraine in the necessity
of “liberating” Ukraine from “separatists” and Russian occupiers. It is trying
to strangle Russia, which insists that Kiev stop the war against its own
people, with sanctions, media appearances, and direct threats, all the while
saturating Ukraine with military specialists, secret service agents, and modern
Thanks to the intensive militarization, Kiev increased the
size of its militarized formations to ove 200 thousand troops. This is ten
times more than the Donbass militia has.
Unlike the militia, which is struggling to survive due to
the shortage of food, medicine, and other basics, the Ukrainian military
machine is backed by the entire state apparatus and the oligarchs with their
honoraria for every “Russian saboteur” killed. The Kiev “party of war” is
driven by a maniacal urge to not merely win in the war it started, but to
destroy everyone who is against it or even has doubts in the success of “Ukrainianness.”
But no weapons, no instructors, no money, no terror, no lie
by Western media will ensure Kiev victory over Novorossia. Even if the UAF were
to grow to a million soldiers and be equipped with the most modern weapons, the
UAF would not be able to break the resistance of the South-East. This monster,
stuffed to the gills with the steroid of war, is doomed to ineffectiveness,
defeat, and shame.
The Weak Spots of the UAF
In spite of the significant resources and capabilities, and
Russia’s detached stance, due to its unwillingness to escalate the civil war in
Ukraine, the Kiev regime cannot turn the situation on the Donbass to its
advantage. The reason for that is the weak spots which considerably outweigh
the UAF’s strengths.
The main weakness is the absence, both in the army and the
country, of true leaders for whom one might be seriously willing to die.
Marauding in the ATO zone is one thing, but dying for the oligarch Poroshenko
and other “leaders” of contemporary Ukraine is something else altogether.
Also the national heroes of the new Ukraine are not quite
commensurate to the scale of the undertaking: who, other than complete
degenerates, would want to fight for Bandera’s and Shuchevych’s ideals?
The contemporary—Banderist—Ukraine does not have true heroic
and glorious history. The Kiev regime cut itself off from the great victory of
the Soviet people over the fascists, but once you do that, what are the values
that are to animate the new Ukrainian army? The Nazi traditions and genocidal
experience of the OUN-UPA?
The lack of leaders, heroes, and history damages the Kiev
regime’s ideology. The Ukrainian journalist Andrey Badzhra noted in his article
“The Foundations of Nationally Conscious Ukrainianism” that the Kiev junta
ideology consists of three key components—“implacable Russophobia, an emphasis
on total Ukrainianization of everything Russian, and the replacement of the
Russian civilizational code in order to transform Ukraine into a European state
(eurointegration)”. Therefore “the victory of nationally conscious Ukrainianism
launched Ukrainianization which, at its core, represents forcible
primitivization, the degradation of the population which is abruptly deprived
of its culture, economy, and the most basic blessings of civilization.”
This makes Ukrainianization the source and basis for the
civil war within the current borders of Ukraine, war which will end either with
the full destruction of the Russian element or the partition of Ukraine. The
Russian element understands this perfectly well, and therefore it is ready for
struggle until victory.
Incidentally, the lack of ideology is half the trouble. What’s
even more troubling is the lack of faith among the faithful. There is fanatism,
but there is no faith. Their God is ill-defined and doubtful, and his
representative, the schismatic Filaret Denisenko, bears little similarity to a
Incidentally, the scientologist and quasi-catholic Yatsenyuk
has his own idol, the Baptist Turchinov his own, and the oligarchs Poroshenko,
Kolomoysky, Avakov, and others are worshipping Mamon.
The absence of pure faith is one of the reasons the nationally
conscious Ukrainians don’t have the Truth. And once there is no Truth, there
will be no Spirit either, and the Sprit is the basis of Victory. Novorossia has
the Spirit. Right now this is the main weapon of the DPR-LPR.
The Real Reasons for Ukraine’s Militarization
Western analysts who poorly understand the Russian Spirit
nevertheless have some notion that the UAF is incapable of scoring a victory on
the Donbass. Thus Sogdiane group analyst Chrristine Duguane-Kleiman writes “the
situation in the UAF is close to catastrophic…It has no skills, not
capabilities to control the situation which had arisen in the country.
Moreover, much of its headquarters is wholly unsuited to the task of conducting
Hence the explanation that the US are sending their
instructors not in order to escalate the conflict in the South-East. They will
no doubt attempt to prolong the war in Ukraine, but out of the principle that “the
longer the war lasts, the better.”
The US military’s objective in Ukraine strikes me as
follows: to ensure US control over its territory and its gradual “digesting” by
US firms. The West could not care less about Ukraine’s national consciousness,
it is interested solely in profits.
As to Kiev, it does not need the country’s total
militarization in order to fight the Donbass or Russia, but to maintain power.
Especially since, as LPR-DPR representatives assert, the UAF does not control
the volunteer battalions and will not be able to wholly control them in the
J.Hawk’s Comment: There is much to be said for this
analysis. Ukraine still has a great deal of military equipment at its disposal,
enough for a cauldron or two. But one has to choose one’s ideology wisely, and
on that score the junta is sorely wanting. The one aspect of the Ukrainian
nationalism as an ideology that the author missed is that it’s the ideology of…the
losing side. Everyone who’s ever adopted it, lost. They did not merely lose
badly, they lost ugly, and made the ideology appear even more despicable and
monstrous than it was before. One would have thought that after OUN-UPA the
ideology was sufficiently discredited that no sane person would ever try to run
it up the flagpole. Alas, no. Ukrainian nationalism is a lot like Al Qaeda’s
ideology—attractive because it never was implemented as the ruling ideology of
an internationally state, and therefore even the defeat of OUN-UPA, and its
many atrocities were not enough to discourage the future generations. But
hopefully Poroshenko & Co. will at long last finish it off for good.