Russia could establish a “no-fly zone” over Odessa region to deblock Transnisttia


May 28, 2015

Roman Nesterenko

Translated by Kristina Rus

Russia is capable of “punching” an air corridor to Transnistria with ECM (electronic countermeasures). S-300 will not help Kiev.

As you know, recently Kiev made one more attempt to provoke Russia into an armed conflict, illegally reversing the the agreement on transit through the territory of Ukraine of Russian military personnel stationed in Transnistria. Ukrainian command demonstratively transported a S-300 division, placing it in the Chernomorskoe [meaning “Black Sea”- KR] village in the Eastern suburbs of Odessa.

Since the territory of Transnistria is surrounded by Moldova and Ukraine from all sides, Rada believes that it put Russia in a desperate situation – either a loss of face and Transnistria, or “aggression against a sovereign Ukraine”. By the way, this does not prevent the Ukrainian leadership from begging for a discount on gas (mysterious Ukrainian soul)…

However, one of our military experts, who agreed to comment on condition of anonymity, believes that if the Ukrainian leadership will not come to its senses soon, it is quite possible that a group of Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria will be supplied in the regime of “neither peace nor war”, arranging a no-fly zone for Ukrainian air force in the Odessa region without any physical aggression.

According to the expert, the modern electronic warfare equipment, which Ukraine does not possess, but Russia does, is able to simply “turn off” and close for Ukrainian aviation the district from Ishmael to Kherson. And devices able to arrange such electronic “mayhem”, will be located in international waters. If any Russian aircraft will fly 70 miles in the airspace of Ukraine and land in Tiraspol — then who can blame the “lost” crews? The most important thing in this scenario is that we have crews able to navigate and fly in conditions of radio blackout and lack of communication, and Ukrainian air force doesn’t have such pilots. 

With regards to S-300, the expert assured that in such circumstances the “fossil” system S-300PS just won’t work, especially against our aircraft.

This is only one possible scenario in a hybrid war — said the expert. — Actually there are many more opportunities of responding to presumptuous Kiev, ranging from immediate fuel and energy blockade, and ending with a proclamation of Odessa Republic.

What will be Russia’s response to the demarche of Kiev, we will see in the near future.

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