Anticipation of a Lost War


June 3rd, 2015

– By: Dmitry Rodionov for – translated by Joaquin Flores

The Ukrainian army is preparing for a new “pocket” in the Donbass

The leader of the banned radical group in Russia “Pravy Sektor” * Dmitry Yarosh spoke about the possible formation of a new “pocket” in the area of ​​so-called “ATO”. The information was published on Tuesday in the periodic information bulletin of the “Right Sector”.

“They have gained the strength to strike, they will be deceptive and their direction will be the main battlefield. 3 – 4 shock formations, they have. In Donetsk, there they can go to Konstantinovka. Slavyansk, for them it is symbolic. The second direction – Mariupol. The third – a village Lugansk, Schastye, there arises another “cauldron”. And Volnovaha. They will wait until dry field to launch an offensive. We do not see them from the field but we can by aircraft. No definitive conclusions “, – says Yarosh. According to him, the information is based on survey data.

In addition, the other material in the same document Yarosh stated that the “military wing” of the organization DUK will be dissolved only “after the reconquest of the Crimea.”

“Our charter written for the DUK says that it’s formed and valid only during the war, – he said. – Crimea restored, territorial integrity preserved, and then DUK is dissolved. We have more discipline than the army sometimes. But being the commander, for example, on the front lines, lines of defense or attack – it’s a normal phenomenon. Find these generals who come back and they will lead the soldiers in the trenches.”

At the same time, the Ukrainian security forces continue to bombard Donetsk and surrounding the capital city of the DPR. According to the press service of the Defense Ministry DPR, this day Ukrainian security forces fired more than forty times upon Donetsk and its surroundings. At the same time the security forces used heavy weapons on the contact line, which is prohibited the Minsk Agreement, including mortars and 120-gauge, tanks, anti-aircraft guns, heavy artillery receiver. Militiamen also use only light weapons: rifles, machine guns, RPGs.

It is worth noting that the January offensive BCH (Armed Forces of the Novorossiya), which completed the formation of the “debaltsevo cauldron” and the capture of Debaltsevo and Donetsk airport, was provoked by the unprecedented barbaric shelling of civilian towns of Donbass, which left the militia no choice except by force to “push” the front line.

Recall that recently the former Deputy Defense Minister Leonid Polyakov in a general broadcast on channel 112, said that the army of the People’s Republic of Donbass is one of the best armies in Europe, and according to some characteristics, it is altogether superior to them all, especially in the systems of salvo fire. All the same, most likely, the statement was made with the aim to explain the defeat inflicted by militias APU. In fact, APU far exceeds the BCH of manpower and equipment. However, the Ukrainian military is still undoubtedly inferior to Donbass militias in terms of the presence of adequate and authoritative command and the motivation of personnel.

It is also worth noting that the “Minsk Agreement” signed in February, did not satisfy any of the parties and is not actually enforced. As for the militia of Donbass, the vast majority of its members, said “Minsk” was a betrayal of their interests and convinced of the need to bring the war to a victorious end in enemy territory, or at least remove the APU from the borders of the former regions of Donetsk and Lugansk  – areas where a year ago there was a referendum on independence, which spoke in favor of the majority of the population.

Will Kiev provoke a new offensive in Donetsk and Lugansk , and, if so, will it is limited to the creation of new “boiler”, or will it be the beginning of a full-scale war, with significant changes on the map of the fighting and displacement of the front line?

According to political scientist Vasily Muravitskaya, there is no hurry to end the war in Donbass, because the country has formed a network of enterprises, good earning on serving the army. Existing economic ties and vertical structures. The budget receives huge funds for mobilized and conducting offensive and defensive operations. Volunteers send much help. For a whole segment of the population the end of the war will be associated with the termination of funding. It is a sad reality of Ukraine.

Right-sector has connections to those private enterprises, earning from the war. Their method – just a way to attract attention and, consequently, financing …

“SP”: – When will there be a resumption of the war?

– For now no one can say. But the appointment of Saakashvili tells us that it is inevitable. There is also information on movements in Ukraine, which has deployed dozens of pieces of heavy equipment to the border of Donbass. Apparently the problem is rather this: two fronts. Until Saakashvili settles in Odessa – a month or two, probably, nothing will happen.

“SP”: – where the second front?

– Transnistria. Saakashvili has also had such an experience in South Ossetia, he has nothing to lose.

“SP”: – That is, Ukraine will attack PMR?

– It will provoke a conflict – this is enough. Not Ukraine – battalions of gangsters. Or will blockade as a provocation to conflict with possible provocations in the Donbass. It’s warming up now – for attacks, etc.

Secretary of the GST and ex-head of the press service of the foreign Ministry of the DPR in Moscow, Darya Mitina , is convinced that the statements of Yarosh are but psychological preparation of the public opinion to become more supportive of active hostilities from the APU, in a clumsy attempt to shift the blame to others.

– The BCH has a clear orders not to open fire first despite daily shelling from Ukraine – an attempt to provoke a response from the active militia. Recently, Western hosts hinted that Poroshenko will now start an offensive against BCH – it will be seen as a way out of the “Minsk accords.” Therefore, APU, conducting active preparations for the hot summer phase of the war (another round of mobilization, the concentration on the front line of technology and human resources, modernization and repair of equipment, upgrading), will provoke military action by Novorossiya, which can be presented to Western partners as “the beginning of the offensive “. Yarosh just has to work out the propaganda support for the coming APU offensive.

“SP”: – If you imagine such a situation, in what direction: would Slaviansk or Mariupol would be a higher priority for the militia? Do they have the power to conduct such a war?

– The head of the DNI A. Zaharchenko says quite the right thing – to liberate from Ukraine all the settlements of Novorossiya, which hosted the May referendum, liberate the occupied territories at least to the administrative boundaries of the DNI and the LC. It is obvious that it would be preferable to achieve political agreements rather than force the path of liberation, but the current behavior of Kiev virtually eliminates this possibility. From an economic and military point of view, there are two priorities: Mariupol (Mariupol – the main industrial center and the main logistics point for the Donbass) and a village Lugansk – Schastye (because it opens the way to self-provision, and LC power for DNI).

From my point of view, the success of the VSN could be provided in case of simultaneous activation of both directions in order to disperse the forces of the MAT, as it will be very difficult to conduct full-fledged fighting on two widely separated parts of the front, but this is only possible while ensuring even to approximate parity of forces, which BCH yet can not be reached. If force were comparable, of course, such a tactic would be the most accurate.

“SP”: – “Minsk format is” exhausted?

– “Minsk format” was exhausted on the day of the conclusion of agreements, he died without being born – the so-called agreements are not worth the paper on which they are printed. Nothing in the agreements are met, and responsible for their failure lies squarely on the side of Kiev. The current “hovering” situation can not be called stable: the international community has played a game called “Minsk Agreement,” closing his eyes and pinching the ears, pretending not to see, not to hear shelling from the Ukrainian side of the front-line. On one unhappy Shirokino by Mariupol every day is hit by 400 shells, shells showered the Gorlovka over the last days too, which went on to kill dozens, still shelling the suburbs of Donetsk, local skirmishes go anywhere.

There is a feeling that this “frozen” situation is beneficial to all but, in fact, Novorossiya: Ukraine is accumulating forces while building diplomatic support, the West and Russia are playing for time, not ready to take radical decisions, in the naive hope that all of this will resolve itself, and only the Novorossiya had to pay for each day for such stagnant “gradual change” of life of its citizens.

According to the ideology of the party “Rodina”, co-chairman of the club’s “Stalingrad” Fedor Biryukov, any war, sooner or later ends. But this is a pre-war type war that keeps breaking out again, until one or the other party succumbs.

– The war between Banderist captured Ukraine and the rebels  of the Russian Donbass today is this – “pre-war.” I have no doubt that the conflict will continue anyway. In addition, the most important factor is that the so-called “ATO”, in addition to fighting the militias, pursues another major goal – to provoke Russia. Provoke a sharp use of force, or the toothless neutrality. Both are acceptable to the main customer of this drama. Collectively, I call him Uncle Sam. This is consolidated against the Russian political elite in the US. Do not just say, Obama, McCain or Biden . All of the Washington machine, reinforced by NATO, the UN, the Brussels unit, etc.

Nevertheless, the authorities and the DNI LC would really love for the war to be over. This positions Moscow as the main peace mediator between the warring parties. Even Kiev would not mind to be done with the war, but it is most difficult to do. There are serious internal and external commitments, assuming the continuation of the war. Released from the lamp with “Molotov cocktails” is a furious genie of Ukrainian Nazism represented by those including Yarosh and his “right sector.” For these forces the war is an optimal habitat, without war, they do not survive. Therefore, the words of Yarosh and similar – is primarily their personal desires. They are willing to fight. The same Yarosh has repeatedly said that he intends to move the front line on the other side of the Russian border. But while it is too tough for him, he wants to return to the fighting in the Donbas. Here, of course, there plays a role not only for thirst for blood, but the thirst for money, easy military plunder.

As for the Ukrainian troops, the National Guard under their other units regularly violated and violate the “Minsk” truce. Almost every day there is new information about the shootings, assaults, murders, etc. Today, for example, Gorlovka is being shelled in the residential sector by the Ukrainian side. In such a situation any serious response of the army of Novorossiya, if it is carried out automatically, becomes the resumption of large-scale clashes.  So we can talk about what Kiev does to trigger Donbass. But from conversations with officials of the DNI and sane and informed the people of Kiev, I know that these provocations are also carried out by the United States. Washington presses on Kiev, demanding war, not peace. So often APU are now working “arts” under duress. Donbass sees this and yet finds the strength to observe the Minsk Agreement, often unilaterally.

“SP”: – And you would not expect the resumption of full-scale war?

– I believe that the resumption of the war “front to front” in the near future is possible only under the condition that Kiev will receive the corresponding order from Washington. Very simple and rigid order. Plus – money, weapons experts, the new round of cold war with Russia, and so on. Whether they decide to stay with the Americans, that is a question. But in this case, granted to them will be a free hand so they are able to defeat the enemy without any diplomatic constraints. Some definite opinions on this subject are given, and they vary. While there is a strange, violent and uncertain truce, a continued a war of nerves, a war of intellect and interests. In any case, the situation in the former Ukraine will remain a very difficult and dramatic for the next few years. This haze will not end soon, there is, unfortunately, quite a long ways to go. And for a final resolution of the conflict in favor of the Donbass, Russia will have to robustly take necessary measures.

* In November 2014 the Supreme Court recognized the organization “Right Sector” extremist, its activity is prohibited in Russia.

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