June 2, 2015
Translated by Kristina Rus
“Turkish stream” provided for all possible threats
There is one small private intelligence company originating from America, called Strategic Forecasting Inc. or just “Stratfor”. Since 1996 the company has been collecting and analyzing information about events happening in our world. On the basis of information gathered from official sources and through their own channels, “Stratfor” makes economic and geopolitical forecasts for major corporations and government agencies. This small and humble business was founded by an American political scientist George Friedman.
A week ago on its website, “Stratfor” posted an analytical article about Russian-Turkish relations and the “Turkish stream”. The main conclusions of “Stratfor” analysts came down to the fact that both Russia and Turkey, constructing a new gas pipeline, will be able to make a significant profit, despite all the possible geopolitical shocks which are likely to be created by Brussels and Washington to prevent the construction of the pipeline.
First, according to Stratfor: “Turkish stream” by and large follows the same route as the previously canceled “South stream”, allowing to quickly change the project, and by the summer of this year the construction of the pipeline is to begin. Russia has resumed the order for 150 thousand tons of pipes with “Europipe”, and in May, “Gazprom” has notified a subsidiary of Italian energy company “Saipem”, that in June 2015 it can start laying the pipes on the shallow waters of the Black sea. In other words, suppliers and partners of the infamous “South stream” transitioned very well into the new gas pipeline project. This is speaking of the “enormous losses” from the cancellation of “South stream”…
Secondly, the analysts note that capacity of the “Turkish stream” will be in demand even if Brussels will create more political constraints and even if European countries will not build the gas transport infrastructure on the border with Turkey. In this case, the “Turkish stream” will work for the long term, because in the next 10 years Turkey’s demand for gas will increase to two branches of the planned pipeline. That is, there will be demand for Russian gas in any scenario, even if Europe will create obstacles on the European route of Russian gas.
It appears that European politicians are just depriving themselves of the available energy resource, especially as Russia has already announced that from 2019 transit via Ukraine will be stopped. If it so happens, the American gas producing companies with their liquefied shale sludge will be happy to empty the pockets of the European consumer, and whether the Europeans will be glad – that is another question…
As a result, “Stratfor” analysts say that no matter how events around the “Turkish stream” unfold, in any case, this pipeline will bring significant profit and gain, both to Russia and Turkey. And no Macedonian heat or political games of Brussels will prevent it.