The G7 Putin Summit

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June 10, 2015

Vasily Muravitsky

Politnavigator

Translated by Kristina Rus




KR: When in the absence of Putin at the meeting of the leaders of the Western world, they can’t stop talking about him, what does that tell you about the changing global geopolitical landscape? 

The history of this informal association probably has never seen a more strange and incomprehensible meeting than the summit of the group of seven in the Bavarian mountains last week. Not because Putin was not there, but because this whole summit only gathered for his sake.

Sure, there were statements about ISIS, environmental troubles, and a few other of the world’s problems… But solutions? Not one clear solution was adopted. The final press-conference was devoted to Putin, judging by how many times he was mentioned there.

German newspaper Bild was sarcastic: no one is going to solve the ISIS problem, because they have created it. But, of course, it’s all Putin’s fault… these are not my words –  the words of German journalists.

Important signal: at the final press conference Obama accused Putin of isolationism. This is a verbal confirmation that the West at the moment needs the Russian economy, and the isolationism of Moscow is more harmful to Western countries than for Russia itself. Sanctions have paradoxically opposite strategic effect than what the West had hoped for.

What should the current leadership of Ukraine expect from the G7 meeting? Anything, but nothing good. Three weeks ago, any attempt of European integration at the EU summit in Riga has been severely halted. Everything was denied, but economic association with the EU (read – looting of industry).

This is even worse than the West originally promised to Yanukovych — he was promised compensation and re-election for a second term. When he realized in 2013 that he was simply fooled, he had enough strength to kick and say “no”. Poroshenko is not kicking anymore.

Now there are persistent rumors that the G7 summit gathered not to show off before Putin, but rather to find a compromise, to find solutions. Ukraine is asking the West for money, Russia has been investing this money in the West for nearly two decades with varying intensity. For example, Russia held the huge until recently, Stabilization Fund, in Western banks, primarily in U.S. and London [all Russian reserve funds amounted to 8,8 trillion roubles in April 2015 – Rossijskaya Gazeta – KR]. And for this money, the West will be ready very soon, though informally, but to recognize Crimea, and ease the pressure on Russia.

And Ukraine? Ukraine will have to remain a “great European dream”, as most recently it was advised by the President of the European Parliament from Poland, Donald Tusk. And prepare for default.

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