West vs. Russia: the point of no return


June 5th, 2015

Ruslan Lyapin

Editor of “Novorossia” news agency


Translated by Kristina Rus

KR: Make no mistake, the Minsk agreement is doomed, what happens next depends on how it will be buried.

In the last couple of days the Russian patriots are experiencing unprecedented enthusiasm, encouraging news are coming one after another: Lavrov responded harshly to the West, Shamanov reported about the readiness of marines, Matvienko is ready to convene an extraordinary session of the Federal Assembly, Nikonov said that Ukraine can pay with territorial integrity for the failure of Minsk, which it keeps violating without end.

Yes, that’s right friends – the rhetoric of the Russian leadership towards the West is as tough as ever, Russia is flexing its muscles not from a good life – Russia has come to the last frontier, beyond which there is either war or what the online pessimists call “a flush” [surrender]. And not just flushing Novorossia or Donbass, but a flush of everything everywhere.

Alas, the “hot summer” has began and “thanks” to those who all year told tales that “Europe will come to its senses”, “Better to negotiate than to fight, “We need Berlin, not Kiev” and the like, and most importantly those, who were able to push this line at the top, gradually brought the country to the brink.

You could say the experts from HSE [Higher School of Economics], partially the presidential administration and the government, willingly or not, have forced the Russian leadership to put almost everything they have at the moment on the line, at least, as far as I know – a number of treaties with China were planned only for 2017, but at the request of the Russian side they were signed now.

So what happened that Russia is forced to reject diplomatic overtures and resort to drastic statements and a preparation for war?

Point by point:

  • The United States and the state of Ukraine, the former Ukraine, are capitalizing on their version of Minsk 2 to the fullest. 
  • Constant shelling and UAF attacks in anticipation of militia’s response in order to fully lay the blame at the UN on Russia to justify further action in Transnistria at G7. Thus the final stage of demonization will be finished – Russia will be cemented as the aggressor and screw what was written in these papers and what really happened. What matters is that the “crazy separatists attacked the Ukrainian soldiers and broke the Minsk agreement.” By the way, this is how the German media painted yesterday’s false start – not a word or a line about the attacks and the victims, but a lot about the “massive attack on Maryinka”.
  • Ukraine is beginning to organize a blockade of Donbass and Crimea, and the United States is increasing pressure on Russian companies wishing to work in Donbass and Crimea. I repeat – this is not the future, this is being done now. Of the most popular examples – water blockade of Lugansk, energy blockade of Crimea, which will be considered by the Rada, Sberbank’s decision not to operate in Crimea and more. The result – indignation of the population, disappointment in Russia and Ukrainian resistance.
  • The real increase of military forces of Ukraine and NATO near Transnistria.
  • The start of bargaining about the World Cup in 2018. After the money invested in such a massive PR, a cancellation will be a personal slap in Putin’s face. Besides, any opportunity to put pressure on Russia will be immediately used, including football.
  • The extension of EU sanctions until 2016 and the strengthening of sanctions against Russia in connection “with the breakdown of the Minsk agreements”, as recently broadcast by the woodpeckers of the global agencies, according to Victor Marakhovsky.
  • Continued systematic squeezing of Russia out of the Middle East. According to Iranian analyst in the event of a fall of Assad in Syria, Russia will lose the Middle East for many, many years to come.
  • Perhaps most importantly, the introduction of any international military occupation troops to Odessa, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, to mitigate a possible attempt on the establishment of a corridor to Transnistria. I put that in the last point, as it is not yet officially confirmed, but the soldiers of the U.S. army and NATO are already in Kharkov, and are constantly emerging in Odessa.

This is what we already have de facto, what we can expect in the nearest future. In addition – increases in the number of provocations in Donbass and a maximum possible blockade of not only Donbass, Transnistria and Crimea, but also Kaliningrad. The idea is not new – according to Primakov, Clinton tried to pull it off back in 1999, but then even the administration of such a pro-American alcoholic as Yeltsin did not go for it and threatened the US with a nuclear strike. Quiet discussions about it appear today, but what yesterday was a timid voice tomorrow can become a reality, and for the Baltic States – it’s not only about their painful self-esteem, but an excuse to transfer  more equipment, aircraft and troops.

As stated above – the introduction of foreign troops to Ukraine is already a reality and now the same unobtrusive deployment will be underway to the areas of possible attack by Russian troops. This is needed for the “cover” of the invasion of Transnistria – while “punching the corridor” the Russian troops will have to face the soldiers of foreign armies, the loss of which, if not leading to a war with the EU and the States, will not add any friendly feelings for sure.

Now, regarding  Transnistria. By the beginning of summer a stronger picture began to emerge – UAF concentrated about 15 thousand soldiers and enough artillery, experienced and most importantly loyal (what’s one more crime) Saakashvili was planted to manage the border region of Odessa. In Romania there are NATO rapid response forces, which will be quickly transferred to Modova to “maintain peace and order”. Apparently, after a series of provocations, or without, around mid-July, the UAF will begin to systematically bombard the territory of PMR [Transnistrian Moldovan Republic]. It will be justified as a “warning shot for the salvation from the Russian occupation of Odessa” or for any other reason – “history will judge,” like Qaddafi.

But I think without a massive invasion. That is, there will be a repeat of what we see now in DPR, but under a complete blockade. After a week of shelling, which the West will not only fail to notice, but will also accuse the peacekeepers, and the outrage of the Russian side (all the info field of the Russian internet will be filled with corpses of children, Russian citizens and wounded peacekeepers). 

Further either Russia openly enters the war against Ukraine on the soil prepared by the West, or becomes “concerned” and can prepare for the loss of Transnistria, reputation and a transfer of the theater of military operations to Crimea, Kaliningrad, Rostov, Belgorod. The point of no return has been crossed, a waiver to a war in Russia will be finally obtained. Yes, they will blow up the border not directly, but with the help of provocations, actively working with allies and including other means about which I wrote in the “Hot summer”, but then it will be a matter of time.

This is about the most important for us Western direction. In addition, financial and sanctions pressure will continue to increase, with pressure on the elites and oligarchy, which is really not concealed, attempted blackmail with “cookies” in the form of the World Cup, attack on Assad with the aim of taking Syria and control over resources in the Middle East. Incidentally, the evil Islamic State sells oil very well to the West through Turkey and at a lower price, in this regard, Syria for them is the corridor to the EU.

This is the situation and coming prospects from our “partners”. There is only one positive – better late then never, but the Kremlin realized that there are no chances for a deal and any agreements and guarantees from the West with the “Russian barbarians” will be considered by them only for their benefit and violated at the first opportunity. That is why the “party of peace” as from a liberal and a patriotic wing is now, how shall I say – not in favor. 

Russia is now increasing its military capabilities, and makes it clear that it is not worth pushing further and nobody will have second thoughts – Russia still has the opportunity to respond pretty quickly in the American tradition. At least for now any new agreement on the pacification of the Russians with any promises will be perceived as a weakness and used by the enemy to implement their plans.

This is why we are now hearing bold statements and muscle-flexing – it is impossible to do more for now, as well as less. As the old man Churchill said: “Whoever between shame and war chooses shame, receives war and shame at the same time”. And today it becomes more clear to everyone as ever – let’s hope that it is clear to those who are at the top.

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