From the translator:
This is merely
analysis, but Yablokov has been generally right before, and it does
match the overall direction of Poroshenko’s push to concentrate power.
Even if things don’t happen exactly as predicted here, this is certainly
where they’re headed eventually. In my opinion, this is probably a good
thing: see this article explaining why “authoritarian” regimes are better than “feuding power groups’, why that is good for Ukraine specifically.
By Arseniy Yablokov. Translation by Tatzhit. Source. Aug 16th 2015
“Avakov is done”.
Police Minister Arsen Avakov suddenly took vacation. Since August 10th,
he is officially relaxing. This in itself is surprising, because the
officials of the new Kiev regime, as a rule, do not advertise their
vacations. Poroshenko, for example, spent four days vacationing on a
yacht in Croatia with his buddy, but you will find nothing on this
subject in the Ukrainian media.
It is considered prudent to believe that the leaders of the “Revolution
of Dignity” never sleep, do not go to the bathroom, and work round the
clock for the benefit of the Motherland, paid in food and small change.
Then, comes an official announcement about Avakov’s vacation. Country is
plagued by rampant crime and banditry, the reform of the Interior
Ministry is in full swing, and Avakov is going away “to rest”. This is
the first odd thing.
The second oddity: Avakov has six deputies. Eka Zguladze is nominally
number one, but de facto she is focused on the implementation of the
“new police” PR project – the one where good-looking boys and girls
drive around on ecology-friendly “Toyota Prius” and cosplay tough
American cops, helping old ladies across the street and chasing in three
cars after one drunk hobo. Poroshenko signed the law on the “new
police” in August, and blatantly hinted that he would like to see
Zghuladze herself as the head policewoman in Ukraine. Eka at first
played at being a virgin, stalled and did not give a clear answer. Now,
suddenly, she becomes the acting Police Minister, although, <having
recently arrived from Georgia together with the fugitive strongman
Saakashvili>, she has absolutely no understanding of the local
problems – which she herself has repeatedly admitted to.
The third oddity: there is no information on when Avakov’s leave will
end. He usually hangs on “Facebook” all day long, shares his thoughts,
spouts drivel about opening hundreds of criminal cases against
Yanukovych’s various minions, and now he’s suspiciously quiet all of a
sudden. Did not even write a single post about his leave. This is
clearly not his style.
And finally, the following item: Porko vetoed the law on the new
structure of the Police Ministry, which until recently was touted as the
most advanced regulation in European history. The law specifically
stated that Eka’s “new police” would be subordinated to the Police
Now you just need to put two and two together and come to the obvious conclusion. In short, Avakov is being removed.
It began a long time ago, when Igor Kolomoisky was taken down a peg –
Avakov, as everyone knows, is on the payroll of Kolomoisky and
guarantees non-interference of the cops in clashes between Poroshenko
and “Benya” <Kolomoiski> *. The President wasn’t happy about that,
but until recently, he could not budge “the hero of the revolution”
from his post. And now, finally, the right moment has come.
To believe that Avakov voluntarily went on vacation at this moment – to
watch from afar as suitcases of cash go to other people – one needs to
be either an idiot or a “Ukrainian patriot”. Which are basically the
Apparently, Avakov was simply pressured. There’s already plenty of
accumulated dirt on him. Starting from the support of “illegal armed
gangs” (<“Aidar”>** punitive battalion), to covering up
corruption (active criminal case against his former deputy Chebotar), to
the machinations with supply of army uniforms and gear (so-called
“Avakov’s stealth military backpacks” – i.e. he received the money, but
no one saw the backpacks).
He was not removed with a bang, but offered a softer option. Arsen goes
on vacation, from which he will not return. In September, he will
announce his plans to run for the mayor of Kharkov. Participation in the
campaign is not compatible with working as a Police Minister, so he
leaves. Thus, Poroshenko’s administration solves two problems in one
First, it removes Avakov and replaces him with Eka Zguladze.
Washington totally approves of Eka – a proven colonial manager, and,
like all Georgian fugitives assembled in tyrant Saakashvili’s Ukrainian
team, wanted by the “Interpol”. In short, a perfect fit.
Second, oddly enough, none of Poroshenko’s men in Kharkov are able to
compete with <current mayor> Kernes. Despite the attempts to
remove or kill him, “Gepa” still firmly holds the former capital of
Ukraine in his little hands, even if the assassination attempt left him
in a wheelchair. Avakov may, theoretically, win the election. In this
case, he would be useful to the President. If he does not win – well, to
hell with him. Even better. Can have a large “anti-corruption” show
A “soft” resignation of Avakov will inflict a decisive blow to the Prime
Minister’s Arseniy Yatsenuk’s group. In many ways, Yatz had held out
thus far due to the fact that Arsen was his source of “muscle”.
Poroshenko, as we know,has decided to kick Yatsenuk out of office after
the fall elections. This requires PM’s “Narodny Front” <People’s
Front> party to fail miserably, with a negligible number of votes.
Until recently, Yatsenuk relied on the help of police to achieve
dominance in the election campaign. Now he has no chance whatsoever –
<polls show Narodny Front rating between 1.6 and 4%, below the 5%
threshold and way down from 22% last fall>.
Poroshenko, by putting Eka Zguladze in the last position in the military
and law enforcement which was not controlled by him, completes the
authoritarian concentration of power. Now Yatsenyuk with his “People’s
Front” can be removed from politics with no risk. He’s just a rotten
tooth that will be knocked out easily by a blow to the jaw.
Other people Poroshenko doesn’t like are in the same boat. First on that
list is the Security Council Secretary Alexander Turchinov. Then – the
head of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defence,
Sergey Pashinsky. Third – the first vice-speaker Andrew Parubiy. There
are others too, but of a lesser “caliber.”
President only needs to settle who the new prime minister would be with
Washington The last mission of Arseniy Yatsenyuk in the current
political scenario will be to optimistically declare “technical
default”, drawing the blame away from US State Dept appointee, US
citizen and Ukraine’s Minister of Finance, Natalia Yares’ko. Then he can
be thrown in the trash. Only Porko will remain on the top of badly
battered Ukrainian government “food chain”.
Washington does not like these games – they prefer to “divide and
conquer”, <that is, stay in control by juggling different groups of
native Quislings>. So we can expect the smart guys from the State
Dept to present Poroshenko with some surprises, chief among them – the
requirement to hold an early presidential re-election. But all of that
will be after the fall election campaign.
* Kolomoiski got his nickname for a similarity to a literary hero of
Babel, famous Jewish mafia don Benya Krik – at least that’s what most
** The author originally said “Azov”, but these NeoNazis are one of few
nationalist paramilitaries that hasn’t yet been disbanded, despite many
members being individually prosecuted for crimes, so the author is not
IIRC Avakov was involved with “Aidar”, and he certainly can be connected
to one of many other disbanded “terrorbatts” like Shakhtersk/Tornado,