August 18, 2015
Translated for Fort Russ by J. Arnoldski
In the interview with KM.RU political scientist, Director of the Center for Geopolitical Expertise, member of the Public chamber of the Russian Federation, Valery Korovin noted that diplomatic efforts to resolve a conflict between Kiev and Novorossiya are almost exhausted:
In my view, the leadership of the DPR and LPR is simply compelled to conduct all of these clearly fruitless negotiations because Russia insists on it threatening to otherwise stop supporting these new and still unrecognized republics.
But negotiations with Ukraine cannot lead to any positive result due to the fact that there is no mechanism for forcing Kiev to fulfill their signed agreements, and this is beautifully demonstrated by the fate of the document conventionally referred to as “Minsk-2.”
Only Russia and the USA can force Kiev to fulfill its commitments, but the latter remains the interested party and the sponsor of the coup in Ukraine and the ongoing civil war in the East. Accordingly, we cannot seriously consider them among the parties which will make Poroshenko to follow the agreements reached to the letter.
Thus there remains only Russia, which has two ways of forcing Ukraine to peace. The first is a peaceful method which Moscow is in fact implementing today by forcing the representatives of DPR and LPR to conduct negotiations. This course is based upon constant appeals to the UN, the OSCE, and international law in general. Meanwhile, Russia is seeking to exhaust all the possibilities for peace in Ukraine which are theoretically provided by international law.
Present negotiations in the framework of a contact group once again showed the inadequacy of this course. Therefore, logically, we come to the second option – forcing Kiev to peace by military means.
This can be a direct entry of Russian troops into the territory of DPR and LPR with the goal of preventing a humanitarian catastrophe and the introduction of a peacekeeping contingent from the CSTO countries. Also, we could talk about comprehensive military support to the army of Novorossiya by means of equipment and specialists.
All this, it’s true, could have been done without the resistance of the “international community” in the spring-summer of last year but, alas, the window of opportunity has been missed.
Now, having exhausted all possibilities to agree on a resolution of the conflict “in an amicable way”, facing the blatant incapacity of international law, and understanding the interest of the US in further fueling the conflict in Ukraine, we should decide on the option of coercing Ukraine to peace.
Either we decide, or we will suffer the most colossal defeat in our entire history…