The real reason behind Kiev’s coming offensive is to plunge Russia into economic crisis

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August 21, 2015

@Friend, Live Journal

Translated for Fort Russ by Soviet Bear

It seems that the bound for defeat Kiev’s intention to attack Donbass has received its justification. They want to disconnect Russia from SWIFT and destroy it, this time once and for all. The Polish Vice-President of the European Parliament, Ryszard Czarnecki has literally said the following:

“As a result of exclusion from the international SWIFT system, the state budget of Russia would  lose 10%, while Russia’s GDP would decrease by 5% per year.” 

“The exclusion of Russia from the international SWIFT system”, – he said in response to the question of what sanctions mean.

“Due to this decision, the Russian Federation will lose 5% of GDP per year. I want to draw your attention to the fact that for the first two quarters of the year, Russia has lost 4.6% of GDP. For the end of the year, the state treasury would lose 10%, it would be a calamity,” – he said.

http://vz.ru/news/2015/8/17/761690.html

Vice-President of the European Parliament admits that there is an economic war being waged against Russia. War, aiming to repeat the scenario of “Perestroika”, i.e. – the collapse of our country.

Thus, according to the MEP, now the economic situation in Russia is deteriorating, and reminds of the 80-s, when the Soviet Union could not withstand the economic, political and military competition with the West. “It was in the worst economic situation. Let’s be honest, for the West this is a kind of hope. As for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin – it is a headache,” – said Czarnecki.

http://www.rosbalt.ru/main/2015/08/17/1430404.html

At the same time, it is impossible not to pay attention to the following statement of the major Polish politician, Sikorski:

Sikorski: Germany will be held responsible in the event of a failure of the Minsk agreements

A Polish politician has called for a return to the provisions of the Lisbon Treaty and to entrust the foreign policy of the EU to its Central authorities. Otherwise, the blame for the failure will be attributed to those countries that took the lead, he said.

According to him, the major European countries only “partially succeed” in such matters. Thus, the mediation of France in the conflict between Russia and Georgia in 2008 did not lead to a positive result. Violations of the Minsk agreements in our day suggest that Europe has returned to what began ten years ago, says Sikorski.

And the responsibility for the current setbacks will be imposed on those states that are now “in the spotlight”. So, if “everything goes wrong”, you can blame Germany, says Sikorski.

http://ria.ru/world/20150817/1191200382.html

And the statements by the U.S. State Department:

Ukrainian troops were forced to fire back and break the ceasefire in Donbass in the name of self-defense, said State Department spokesman, John Kirby.

Speaking at the briefing, Kirby said: “According to the OSCE, the vast majority of violations (of Minsk agreements) occur from the pro-Russian separatists”.

“The vast majority of attacks come from the side of pro-Russian separatists. Ukraine has the right to defend itself. Obviously, what we want from all sides is to adhere to the Minsk agreements, which provides for the withdrawal of weapons and the cessation of violence, negotiations about the settlement,” – he said, answering the question, whether the US condemns the attacks by Ukrainian forces in the conflict zone.

http://ria.ru/world/20150817/1191641786.html

Russia and Ukrainian militia will pay an additional price in case of capture of new territories, said on Monday the official U.S. State Department spokesman, John Kirby.

“We remind that the attempts of Russia and the separatists to seize more territory will have their price,” – he said.

http://ria.ru/world/20150817/1191628418.html

Referring to the weekend attacks, Kirby said that “there is no doubt that they were made by Russia and the separatists”.

He also demanded fulfillment of commitments of the Minsk agreements from the Russian Federation and the militia. The State Department spokesman noted that U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, last week expressed “serious concern” about the situation in Ukraine to the Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

According to him, the US “continues to urge the Russian Federation (and the militia) to the full implementation of commitments under the Minsk agreements”.

http://ria.ru/world/20150817/1191568216.html

***

Thus, the following picture emerges:

In the first step, Kiev, defending itself, develops a full-scale attack.

In the second step, Kiev suffers a devastating defeat.

In the third step the West after noisy demonstrations of a number of questionable videos, and other “evidence” excludes Russia from SWIFT deals and commits other attacks on our country.

In this case, the West would have to pay a great price. It is not surprising that the Poles (or should I say the USA) are already publicly vilifying Germany for Minsk-2. Recall that USA, Poland and the European bureaucracy are not involved in this format of negotiations, which infuriates them.

Nevertheless, Kiev may attack Donbass at any time and then everything will kick off. The cold war will move to a new level and in Russia there has to be an inner escalation, because “Perestroika” (which the West openly refers to) is impossible without the domestic factor.

UPD. Note, all of this may occur in August, 2015

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