Why the upcoming UAF offensive will fail


August 17, 2015

Roman Nesterenko


Translated by Soviet Bear

So, as they say in Odessa, “we are on the eve of a big ‘shookher’ [a mess – tr.]”. UAF have licked their wounds and accumulated a certain (not very large) supply of ammunition, took the last units of armored vehicles and artillery, caught the new cannon fodder during the fifth and sixth waves of “recruitment”, ran them through a boot camp, more or less reorganized their units and are ready to test their luck once again under the guidance of U.S. military advisers.

Well, maybe not yet ready, but they have no time and a whole bunch of reasons, (we should not mention them) are driving Kiev for yet another military venture. It is already obvious that the recent escalation on the front is a preparation for a major UAF assault against the NAF, where 60 000 to 75 000 of personnel, 420-450 800-900 tanks and pieces of artillery will be deployed by the UAF

It should be noted that this will be the last offensive of the UAF — the last in every sense. Because the Kiev regime has nowhere to take vehicles, artillery, and ammunition in required quantities in a reasonable time. 

Now here is why the UAF is once again doomed to a humiliating defeat:

1. Even after Nalyvaychenko was kicked out of Chairman of the SBU position and in fact was removed from the ATO command, the voluntarism of the political leadership and the inability (or unwillingness) of the Ukrainian General staff to defend its position is the main problem of the UAF. Add to this the super-credentials of the American advisers and personal opinion of Nazi volunteer battalions “atamans” on every issue and the main problem of UAF is obvious — the absence of a clear hierarchy of command and decision-making. Simply put, UAF have much lower connectivity and manageability than the opposing NAF. Of course, at battalion level, UAF has a considerable number of combat-ready units with combat experience, but the higher the rank of a commander — the more chaos and “brilliant” decisions Geletey and Muzhenko style are made. The guys from the armed forces of Ukraine should be prepared to engage heavily fortified and camouflaged NAF positions head on, they should be prepared for “heroic” raids of armored columns of the UAF into DPR/LPR territory under constant NAF artillery fire, under continuous attacks of the Novorossian sabotage and reconnaissance groups, armed to the teeth, including with modern means of anti-tank defense.

2. The mismatch of the scale of plans with the means allocated for their implementation.

As we know from several sources, the plan of UAF “decisive offensive” is a copy of the operations “Lightning” and “Storm”, which Croatia launched in 1995 against Serbian Krajina, effectively destroying the latter. The main problem with the implementation of this cunning plan is that the Croats and Bosnians at the time of these operations had a tenfold advantage over the Krajna Serbs, and today the UAF does not even have a two-fold advantage over the NAF. Besides that, the LPR/DPR don’t have unfriendly Bosnia and Herzegovina in their rear, but friendly Russia and the “North wind” (Russian covert supply lines for the militia). Also, it should be noted that in the war without aviation the role of artillery is very high and NAF artillery is superior to the UAF artillery in almost every aspect, except numbers. Moreover, today it is perhaps the most efficient artillery in the whole world.

3. Morale. 

There’s even nothing to discuss here — a hodgepodge of staunch Nazis who don’t like to die; conscripts recruited from all across Ukraine; employees of PMCs, which also really don’t want to die; and a number of veterans who see this war as a personal vendetta. The latter are able to put up a decent fight — after all they are also Russians, though deceived and confused, but they still remember the ashes of Izvarino, Ilovaysk and Uglegorsk. The Ukrainian army is fragmented, heterogeneous in ideologies and moral values, and deprived of the most important thing in the war — the sense of camaraderie and the spirit of true partnership. No matter how much you tell them about the sworn brothers, the practice shows the opposite — territorial battalions betray army troops and each other, UAF shells territorial battalions with pleasure and so on. 

They’re opposed by virtually monolithic NAF which consists of very motivated people who every day have to disassemble the ruins of their homes to bury their children, parents, brothers and sisters and other civilians killed by the Nazi Ukrainian artillery. From people who for a year and a half struck most humiliating defeats to the army of 35 million Nazi state more than once, which at the beginning of the confrontation, exceeded the militia in all aspects. I will not be wrong if I say that outright offensive of UAF will be perceived in Donbass with relief: finally they will get the chance to destroy their tormentors and murderers as much as they can, with no regard to the opinion of the international community. The inevitable offensive of the UAF is doomed to the inevitable defeat. Of course, the Donbass will pay the greatest price of effort, sweat, tears and blood for this victory— but there is no other option. And much more important is what happens afterwards: Kharkov, Odessa, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol all believe and wait.

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