Is Turkey on the brink of Yemen style civil war?

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October 13, 2015

Blogger Touareg710

Translated by Kristina Rus

Mistakes of others teach nothing. While Lukashenko is following in the footsteps of Viktor Yanukovych, Turkey is following in the footsteps of Yemen towards an outbreak of a civil war on its territory.

(A color revolution has been launched in Belarus. Carrot and stick method to neutralize the leadership of the country is an integral part of this revolution. While the leader to be deposed talks about “lifting of sanctions”, the opposition organizes provocations, for now without a loss of human life, but this is only the beginning. Who has forgotten — I advise to remember the scenario of the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych. Western friends don’t change the script as long as it works.)

For many years the Turkish territory was a transit point for ISIS militants, destabilizing Syria. In Turkey, the militants were quiet, as was Al Qaeda in Yemen. The government of Yemen and the leaders of the local clans for many years endured the neighboring Al Qaeda cells that promised a peaceful coexistence, construction of mosques, training and education of youth. So it went on, until the number of ‘guests’ and their supporters became so significant, that it began to affect the domestic political life of the state. At some point, the inter-clan confrontation, fueled by Al Qaeda, grew into armed clashes, which led to the flight of the President and the interference of neighboring countries into armed conflict. Now the war in Yemen continues with no end in sight with none of the warring parties having an advantage. 

Turkey learned nothing from Yemen. The militants freely moved on the territory of Turkey, had the opportunity to relax, receive treatment, train new recruits, for show calling them “the moderate opposition”. Of course, many transactions under the scheme “oil in exchange for weapons” went through Turkey. Perfect. The Kurds were slightly defiant, objecting the support of the ISIS. The local population of the border areas did not feel safe, and, of course, a huge number of refugees did not stabilize the situation in the country. But ISIS entrepreneurs and politicians, playing the anti-Syrian and anti-Kurdish card could not be disturbed by the discontented murmurs of the population in predominantly Kurdish areas.

This balance could last for a long time, however, in the war there has been a shift not in ISIS favor. This shift happened even before Russia’s entry into the war, the Kurdish militia started to push the rebels in some parts of the front. Before the Turks in the near future loomed the perspective of an independent Kurdish state. Turkey made desperate attempts to keep the status quo, even started bombing Kurdish positions in Syria and Iraq, but in vain.

And then suddenly Russia enters the war on the side of Bashar al-Assad… At that point, the outcome of the war has become clear to all. Hysterical statements about the violation of Turkish air space by the Russian aircraft, threats to shut off gas, to terminate the contract for the construction of NPP in Akkuyu only proved to the international community the already known fact: ISIS project has expired and there is nothing that can stop it. It’s time for Turkey to pay the bill and likely, on its own. The US is far away, and Saudi Arabia, the next intended victim of ISIS after Turkey, decided not to wait around for the war to begin on its territory and appealed for help to Russia.

The militants are moving from Syria in several directions and the main one is Turkey, some of the CIA militants are trying to get to Iraq, some – to North Afghanistan, closer to the Russian border, others — to the territory of Saudi Arabia. Turkey’s problem is that for many years it has turned a blind eye to ISIS creating its infrastructure, unlike Saudi Arabia, which has helped ISIS mainly financially, preferring to support terrorism and terrorists away from its borders.

Now ISIS militants prefer to hide on the existing bases in safe Turkey and not in the Iraqi desert under the bombing of Iraqi air force. In Afghanistan ISIS has no future, despite the use of the infrastructure of American PMCs and the support of pro-American administration. The Afghan Taliban is strong enough militarily to put up armed resistance to ISIS on the one hand, and its leaders have significant religious authority among the local population to confront ISIS ideologically. Unlike the American commercial enterprise ISIS, the Taliban has all the signs of national liberation movement and is much more similar to a moderate opposition, than that opposition which is so elusive in Syria.

If Russia will intervene in the conflict in Afghanistan in order to neutralize ISIS and will demonstrate wisdom of avoiding war on two fronts, the fate of the Islamists in Afghanistan is set. However, the Mujahideen are doing well on their own, only it takes a little more time.

A series of terrorist attacks in Turkey, I suspect with a high degree of probability, has been organized by the Turkish security forces in order to neutralize the Turkish Kurds. Terrorist attacks can certainly cause the opposite effect: the Kurds, declaring a moratorium on the war with Turkey before the election, can cancel this moratorium. Possibly this is what Erdogan wants.

Whether elections are cancelled or postponed, ISIS is not going anywhere from the Turkish territory and the newly elected government will inherit the ISIS problem, which must be somehow solved. The politicians will have to either figure out where to ship the militants to fight, or begin arresting them. Arrests will be accompanied by constant skirmishes with the police. Armed men who have been to war may not want to go to a Turkish prison without resistance, and with a prospect of ending up in Guantanamo or similar correctional facilities.

American friends could come to the aid of the Turks, offering the militants a quiet creeping occupation of some place Americans no longer needed, such as Georgia or Ukraine. Not far from the Turkish border, close to the Russian, Americans puppet-states are quite suitable, in order to quietly dump the Turkish problem on somebody else’s head. It is still possible to smuggle the fighters into Europe. 

The first fruits of the emerging problems for the Turkish authorities are already evident:

http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2674158

In Turkey, the opposition organizes mass protests and demands the resignation of the government. In turn, the authorities detain everyone associated with ISIS and bomb the positions of Kurdish rebels. How was the day after the terrorist attack in Ankara?

http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2673920

…Molotov cocktails, broken windows, mass brawls with police — and that was just the beginning. In the morning the opposition was preparing large-scale rallies across the country. The largest took place in Ankara, Istanbul, Diyarbakir. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets with demands for the government to resign.

…Nobody took the responsibility for the attack. Authorities suspect everyone just in case — from ISIS and Kurdish rebels to local nationalists and the radical left. Arrests have already began. Anyone who might be associated with terrorists of “Islamic state” is detained.

http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2674046

In the Turkish city Senkaya, Erzurum province, in the exchange of fire that ensued during an anti-terrorist operation, two soldiers have been killed, reports Anadolu News Agency.

Unexpectedly resumed bombings of the Kurdistan workers party positions. Although on the eve the Kurdish rebels have decided to cancel any military actions against the authorities until the parliamentary elections on November 1st, thus indirectly stating that they are not involved in the tragedy.

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