October 12, 2015 –
Translated for Fort Russ by J. Arnoldski
“What next? Konstantin Knyrik, Gleb Bobrov, and “Viking” on the ceasefire, Minsk Agreements, and the future of Ukraine and Donbass”
The Minsk Agreements have recently become the main topics in media as well as everyday kitchen conversation in Novorossiya and Russia. Will Ukraine fulfill them or not? Will the ceasefire last? What future awaits Ukraine and will Donbass return to Ukraine?
Konstantin Knyrik, head of the legendary news agency, News Front:
“If we’re speaking about the prospects of the truce, then three days ago there were serious violations, and the long-suffering Kubyshevsky district of Donetsk was hit by mortar fire from the Ukrainian side. Forecasts do not look optimistic as long as Ukraine is not complying with the truce, sure, not to such an extent as before, but, nevertheless, it is violating it.
The matter at hand is that Ukraine is not completely independent in making its own decisions and when it receives an order to resume hostilities. Information and video confirmation of the constant relocation of Ukrainian equipment to the so-called “ATO” zone are being systematically received.
Concerning Minsk in general, not a single point of the Minsk Agreements wasn’t fulfilled by the DPR and LPR in their deeds. This includes moving elections and giving a last chance to Ukraine to listen to the Normandy Format and fulfill them.
But I don’t think that Ukraine will fulfill them, because the government in Ukraine now needs war, and war is the only instrument for maintaining the authorities. The people came [to power] by blood. And only blood can keep them in power.
I would like to be an optimist and believe in peace. Today, the republics are being built amidst the realities of war. They are building their statehood and doing this quite successfully. There are some kinds of welfare payments, the heating season has started, there are new factories, and there are new market outlets in the Russian Federation. Not long ago, the Lugansk meat-packing plant received approval to export meat products to Russia.
Only time will show how events develop further, but it is a fact that Ukraine can resume hostilities again in any moment. They are preparing for this, because they have no other path than war.”
Gleb Bobrov, chairman of the LPR Writers’ Union, legendary author of “The Era of the Stillborn”, in which he foretold current events and the war in Ukraine and Donbass 10 years ago:
“Unfortunately, Ukraine is not going to fulfill any agreements. Instead of fulfilling them, they come up with all sorts of interpretations, artificial events, provocations, and so on. What Poroshenko said in Paris in the presence of Putin, Merkel, and Hollande is no more than a bluff. No one is going to fulfill anything.
The problem is that the fulfilling of the Minsk Agreements is impossible for one reason: of Ukraine fulfills them, then it will cease to be Ukraine. The agreement assumes that a single, unitary Ukraine will simply cease to exist and turn in to a confederation.
If Donbass at first wanted to be heard, wanted mild autonomy in regards to our worldview, culture, history, and just basic respect, then now Donbass will not go for anything less than a confederation.
Ukrainie itself cannot change. After three major Ukrainian military defeats, taking into account losses of 15-20,000 dead, 35-50,000 crippled and maimed people with disabilities, the territorial losses of Crimea and Donbass, and a destroyed economy, the questions: for what sake is all of this? The current Ukrainian leadership still hasn’t been asked this question, and not simply asked, but demanded to find those at fault. And then someone will have to be hanged from lampposts.
Now there is a real checkmate. Any further action will lead only to a deterioration of the situation. Therefore, the Ukrainian leadership is simply stalling according to an old Ukrainian tradition: “So be it.”
Today, they are increasingly robbing and ripping the last shreds of wool from a half-dead sheep, stuffing their pockets. Not even us, but the Ukrainian “hundreds” themselves say that they’ve never seen such corruption before. They are selling everything, even fake bulletproof vests. You see, it’s already come to the point of selling “Grad” systems. Just imagine: they wanted to sell a “Grad” from Western Ukraine to Romania. And what is there to say about little things like guns – we have the UAF fighters who went around Bolshaya Vergunka, selling them for 700 hrivnya. And this still isn’t the end. I think the situation will only worsen.
In a year and a half, they’ve brought the country to default, the level of external debt has reached $70 billion, and Yatsenyuk goest up to the podium of the Verkhovna Rada says that they’ve prepared for winter: they intercepted a billion here, three billion there – is this such a normal preparation?
They all have an absolutely childish attitude. Apparently, they believe that after everything they will have time to run to the border.
Not long ago, we completed a sociological survey, in which we managed to talk with 28 people from the Ukrainian side of Lugansk, with those who didn’t recognize the Russian Spring or the LPR, but are still people. Read it, you won’t regret it. So here they are, on the other side, who consider us to be separatists, and they openly say that yes, we have an economic and humanitarian catastrophe,. Yes, we have complete lawlessness and arbitrariness, and as a norm they don’t know what will happen next.
You know, I recently spoke with the famous writer Herman Sadulaev and asked him how the Chechens and Russians were able to overcome the consequences of the war. Three things turned out to be: the will of the people, which didn’t want war, sande leaders in the form of Putin and Akhmat, and later his son Ramzan Kadyrov, and the economic component. And that’s it – the terrible conflict was overcome.
Now show me at least one sane politician from the other side? There is silence on this point. Is there simply at least one sane person with whom we could speak? Here’s the very “fulfillment” of the Minsk Agreements and all.”
Active participant of “Russian Spring” in Donetsk, militia commander Aleksandr Matyushin, call-sign “Viking”:
“A more or less silent regime has been established at the front. Again, it is a relative silence, as we see that Ukrainian troops continue to periodically violate the ceasefire.
In particular, the day before yesterday the UAF struck the Kiev district of Donetsk with 120mm mortars. Almost immediately they renounce what they’ve done, and Ukrainian media announces that it was the DPR who attacked, and they say at state assemblies that the “militants” have destroyed their notorious commanders, “Givi” and “Motorola.” I will immediately say that this is a lie.
Ukrainian troops not only didn’t remove their weapons, but they also continue to enlarge troop groupings in main areas. For all those who say “they ditched us”, I will say at once that we also aren’t in too much of a hurry to remove our armor and weapons, despite all the loud statements of Denis Pushilin in Minsk. Already now, judging by the concentration of enemy forces, it is possible to say that peaceful plans envisaged.
Thus you can guess the approximate scenarios of a development of hostilities if the Kiev government decides on a full-scale war. The concentration of forces and political statements say that Kiev is deciding to repeat the scenario of the Croatians against Republika Srpska Krajina and the UAF will act in the same way. They are waiting until all heavy and not-so heavy weapons will be allotted to the rear under the supervision of various peacekeeping missions (like the OSCE). On one fine day (probably in autumn when the mud dries, o r maybe in winter, as who knows what goes on in the minds of the descendants of great Ukros), an offensive will be started on three fronts with artillery support.
Now it’s already possible to discern that a southern offensive will come from the town of Volnovakha, and a strike will come from Kurakhovo via Marinka against Donetsk (western direction), and respectively from the north in the direction of Gorlovka.
Given that Ukrainian pilots are afraid of our defenses, they are now learning to fly at very low altitudes, and I do not exclude the use of aircraft by the UAF. Also not excluded are fights on secondary fronts, such as the Donetsk airport or the recent one repulsed by us at Debaltsevo, in order to divert our attention and additional reserves which could be thrown at preventing a breakthrough by Ukrainian troops.
This scenario isn’t the only likely one – it is one of the possible scenarios which was voiced by some Ukrainian military men and politicians (in particular Mr. Parubiy spoke about the repetition of the Serbian scenario). But knowing our officers, I think that they already long ago reviewed this scenario and I think (and I know many officers personally, and they are far from stupid people) that in case of all sorts of “unexpected surprises,” they have a few surprises which could shock Ukrainian soldiers.
What should the civilians of DPR do? Enjoy the last sunny and peaceful days…”