CIS-EMO analyst: No peace, no war condition will persist; Donbass is not going back

Stanislav Byshok Ilya Muromsky

In Kharkov News Agency, Donbass, November 11, 2015

Translated from Russian by Tom Winter

In the area of the so-called Anti-Terrorist Operation, the “no peace, no war” status continue for a long time. This opinion was expressed by Stanislav Byshok, political analyst at the International Monitoring Organization CIS-EMO.

Today, in the capital of the People’s Republic of Donetsk the morning is very restless – in the region of the Donetsk airport a shooting battle is going on. There are now focused most fierce fighting. Ukrainian military are covering the airport with artillery and mortars. Moreover, sabotage and reconnaissance groups keep trying to slip into the territory of Donetsk, but at the moment they manage to repulse them or completely eliminate them.

At the same time, there are local clashes near the settlements Avdeeka, Peski, and Spartak. Occasionally 82 mm shells fly over militia positions. Militias have reported that the explosions came from positions bordering the Donetsk airport areas. According to them, the intensity of this fire was not long lasting.

According to Eduard Basurin, Deputy Minister of Defence of People’s Republic of Donetsk, in just the last 24-hour period the Ukrainian army launched over 40 rounds on the territory of the DNR. He noted that the main focus of the opposition was the Donetsk Airport and the village Spartak.

“Over 40 rounds came in over the DNR territory in the lst 24 hours. The main hotbeds of tension are again Spartak town and the airport of Donetsk “- said Eduard Basurin yesterday at a press conference.

In addition, the Ukrainian army is forming up shock troops near Gorlov. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are setting up self-propelled guns, multiple launch rocket systems “Grad” and “Uragan” there. Also yesterday, DNR military intelligence has recorded the arrival in the area of combat helicopters. The threat of an offensive starting up is great.

More unrest is happening in the People’s Republic of Lugansk, there are live fire fights fights going on, with both sides suffering casualties. The area along the Bahmutovsk highway where tanks and armored vehicles are active is especially hot.

On “Kharkiv” the expert was asked: What is causing the aggravation of the situation in the Donbass? According to the political analyst Stanislav Byshok the goal of Ukraine in the Donbass is to maintain a constant voltage in the interests of the United States. For the US it’s useful to keep the political and sanctional confrontation going between Russia and the EU, the situation which began just after the coup in Kiev.

“Despite the patriotic statements of mainstream politicians regarding the “one country,” everyone understands that, firstly, the DNR and the LNR getting back into Ukraine, at least in its current administrative and political situation, is not going to happen. Secondly, it is clear that at the moment the DNR and LNR are regions that require major restoration, requiring huge sums that Kiev simply does not have and does not expect. Therefore, if we assume a fantastic scenario that tomorrow APU “blitzkrieg” will come and occupy the entire territory of the unrecognized republics, what then to do with the territory that Kiev destroyed and is inhabited by unfriendly people pinimical to post-Maidan Ukraine?” said Byshok.

According to experts, the most likely forecast seems to be the preservation of the status of “neither peace nor war,” with periodic mutual shelling and rumors about the concentration of Ukrainian troops on the borders of the People’s Republics of Donbass. Ilya Murom

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