Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ
9th January, 2016
Europe is gradually turning away from US, and soon the Old world and New world will break up. A consulting company, Eurasia Group, has published its forecast for the current year.
In the United States momentum is gaining in the presidential race where the primary topics of discussion are issues of foreign policy. However, all applicants’ attention is focused on Russia, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and Europe has very little emphasis. In this regard, European countries are beginning to rethink the transatlantic partnership and common purpose. Also, in recent years more doubt in the world has been caused by the U.S. leadership. EG notes that the current crisis in relations between the US and Europe is of a very serious and systemic nature. So to overcome this it will be very difficult, and given that Americans today are busy with other things, it is almost impossible.
Moreover, the relations between the US and Europe are not only staggered, but also relations within the European Union itself. The migration crisis has shown how easily European leaders are ready to abandon the main principle of the EU – open borders. And while the borders between European countries remain open, the question of restrictions is being discussed at the highest level.
However, the boundaries are not the only contradiction between the countries of Europe. In 2015, the leaders of the leading EU countries showed different foreign policy priorities. France made a sharp roll in the direction of Russia, due to the fact that the main threat to Paris is international terrorism. So the choice was obvious — Francois Hollande has chosen the country that today is actually fighting against terrorists in Syria and does not consider it possible to make any concessions. That is why France, after the terrorist attacks in Paris, have not appealed for help to NATO, although they had every right to do so in this case, as cooperation with Moscow would have been difficult.
Germany and its leader Angela Merkel see the main problem as the flow of refugees. Public opinion of Germany doesn’t favour the policy of the authorities, who until recently pretended that the alien civilization of the migrants will make productive members of society. So today, Berlin has directed all efforts in cooperation with Turkey. German authorities believe that by appeasing Ankara, they can reduce the flow of migrants. In this regard, an agreement was signed worth €3 billion. For the money, Turkey pledged not to allow refugees to Europe.
However, Turkey’s promises are worth less than the paper it’s written on. Almost immediately after signing the agreement, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the solution to the problem depends not only on his country but on the development of the situation in Syria, although in the process of negotiations with Europe such an approach by the Turkish side is not allowed. It is obvious that Erdogan was able to catch Europe on the hook and will now use this advantage in full in the negotiation process on different issues.
Britain, in turn, is concerned by the issue of financial problems. In the context of economic crisis and of the austerity measures, they turned to those who had not experienced problems with liquidity — to China. This step is particularly revealing, given that London has always been a major ally of the United States, and China today is the main geopolitical opponent of the Americans.
Despite protests from Washington, the UK joined the Asian infrastructure investment Bank, which was created by the Chinese to compete with the American-Japanese Asian Development Bank. The British, venturing in the conflict with the United States, are trying by all means to maintain London as the leading global financial centre. And without good relations with the China, this would be extremely difficult in the foreseeable future to achieve .
The experts believe that in 2016 the contradictions between European countries and the USA will affect the position of the West on the Ukrainian crisis, including the anti-Russian sanctions. But transatlantic relations will no longer be a priority both for Europe and for America.