Five Minutes of Common Sense: Post-coup Turkey will compromise with Russia


July 18, 2016 – 

Ruslan Ostashko, PolitRussia – 

Translated by J. Arnoldski

I’ve long since noticed that our people has developed an interesting way of understanding the most complex, confusing, and obfuscated situations. This method is very simple and effective. Here is its essence: if you don’t know whom to support, look who the pro-Western liberals and the journalists from “Echo” and “Rain” are supporting, and support the opposite. 

This method works flawlessly, as we’ve seen with the example of the Turkish putsch. Once the first reports of the coup in Turkey began to appear, our liberal crowd rushed in hordes to support the coup. In fact, it is quite funny that our Westernizers rejoiced over Erdogan’s overthrow together with the pseudo-patriots whose personal hatred for Erdogan is completely disconnected from any kind of logic.

I know that the theory that there wasn’t actually a coup, but that it was all a hoax by Erdogan, is now making its rounds through social networks. But I don’t believe in this version. It is difficult to imagine staging such a large-scale coup, moreover with the participation of 200 corpses as props, downed helicopters, and the storming of the presidential hotel and the shelling of government buildings with tanks. This was a real coup, albeit one simply made in an extreme hurry. 

There is yet another, even more crazy theory which is being actively disseminated by our Ukrainian opponents, which alleges that Russia stood behind the revolt of the Turkish military. This is nonsense. The organizers and main fighting force of the rebels were generals and officers of the Turkish army, that very structure which made the last military coup in Turkey on the direct order of the CIA.

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Erdogan and his close entourage claim that the US was involved in the coup, and there is simply no reason to doubt this assessment. Judge for yourselves. But what does the Turkish leader win from these accusations? Nothing. They offer no tangible bonuses. Rather, they only create problems. So what is the point of hurling such accusations? 

Turkey’s prime minster said yesterday that the US is no longer a friendly country for Turkey. Everyone perfectly knows how such statements end. But Erdogan’s entourage is not afraid, the only logical explanation for such being that they already know that relations with the Americans have finally spoiled, the confirmation of which is in the form of the two dead bodies over which Erdogan cried yesterday. These were the bodies of his close friend and his 16-year-old son who were killed by the putschists. As pro-government media have claimed, Erdogan himself was saved from a similar fate by coincidence and incredible luck.

It can now be asserted with confidence that the Turkish president knows that the US wants not so much his removal from office as his death. I suspect that Erdogan doesn’t like this prospect so much. It would be ridiculous to assume that Turkish-American relations will be good following this. We need them to be somewhat poor, since the stronger that Erdogan resents the Americans, the better things stand for us. The Turkish leader has many unpaid bills for the US. After all, the Americans not only inspired and organized the coup attempt, but also didn’t want to hand over Fethullah Gulen, the head of the structure that financed all of this mess.

Erdogan is now beginning an unprecedented purge of the army, police, and judicial system. The number of those fired and arrested is already in the thousands, which means that the Turkish army will be bled out for quite a long time. This is simply wonderful for us. Over the process of these purges, the most Americanized part of the Turkish elite will suffer. If during this process the sources of funding for all sorts of pan-Turkish and pro-American structures using Turkish elites and military men to advance American interests in the Caucasus, Kazakhstan and other important regions are “broken,” then this would be just splendid.

The coup was suppressed, but it is obvious that Erdogan will soon have to deal with consolidating his power, which means he will have neither the time nor the resources to engage in active foreign policy. This means that he will have to compromise on all the issues that are important to us. It very well may be that it is precisely these compromises that Erdogan and President Putin will discuss at the meeting which they agreed to yesterday.

Overall, the putsch and its failure have changed the situation in Turkey in our favor. And this is the main conclusion to be drawn to this date. 

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