July 22, 2016 –
By Eduard Popov for Fort Russ
Translated by J. Arnoldski
The recent events in Munich are the hottest news of the day in “united Europe.” So far, the motives and perpetrators of the terrorist attack remain unknown and, naturally, the shooting in Munich has a few theories. The easiest would be to treat it as yet another terrorist attack by migrant Islamists, as Munich itself is full of migrants from Muslims countries.
The second theory is conspiratorial insofar as it says that the shooting was organized by forces interested in destabilizing Germany and thereby the EU. The Munich terrorist attack has dealt another blow to the image of Angela Merkel and the ruling CDU-CSU and SPD coalition. In 2017, moreover, elections to the Bundestag will be held in Germany. Many analysts concur that the Christian Democrats will lose to their competitors in the form of the coalition of Social Democrats first and foremost because of Angela Merkel’s extremely unpopular immigration policies. Opposition to these policies is growing within the ruling party itself. The rise of the new right-wing party Alternative for Germany has also been contributed to by the defection of some of Merkel’s party comrades dissatisfied with the Chancellor’s immigration and economic policies. The Social Democrat and head of German foreign policy, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who has acted as the head of the internal opposition in the ruling coalition, can be seen as the most likely successor to Angela Merkel to the post of Chancellor if life does not bring any new surprises. The supporters of a conspiratorial theory can refer to a number of famous examples ranging from the shots fired in Sarajevo in July 1914 to the recent police shootings in Dallas. If this version has the right to life, then those who ordered the terrorist attacks are most likely some kind of international forces interested in collapsing the contemporary European system.
The third possible version is that the shooting was organized by right-wing radicals. Indeed, not without reason have there been testimonies by some witnesses that shouts of “Die, migrants!” were heard during the shooting. If this is true, then we are seeing a repetition of Breivik’s terrorist attack, this time on German territory, especially since today marks the fifth anniversary of that attack.
I’ll confess: I am not so much interested in who stands behind today’s attack. What is more interesting is what consequences it could bring.
Today’s terrorist attack in Munich is a blow to the immigration policies of Angela Merkel, the ruling coalition in Germany and, according to the principle of communicative extension, the unity of the European Union. It could simultaneously lead to tectonic changes for right-wing parties in Germany and the EU, as the “guilt complex” imposed upon Germans after the Second World War could come to be dismissed as a “victim complex.”
Germany has experienced its second attack organized either by Muslim migrants or resultant of the migrant problem in only the last few days. A long-term consequence of such could be a German analogue of Brexit. Even if this will not reach the point of organizing a referendum on Germany’s withdrawal from the EU (and this is indeed unlikely), it would still give rise to a massive movement in this direction. Among other things, it would lead to increased anti-immigrant slogans in the upcoming elections to the Bundestag and add more than a few political points to the Eurosceptics, first and foremost the young, dynamic Alternative for Germany party.