Ostashko: Russia should wait out the coming global disorder

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January 31, 2017 – Fort Russ – 

Ruslan Ostashko, Live Journal – translated by J. Arnoldski – 

I smile at those American, European, and even Russian journalists and politicians who are shocked by Trump’s behavior. This is real shock. And the point is not even his statements, his Twitter posts, or decrees. The problem is something entirely different. They are shocked that a politician has showed up who actually delivers on his promises. Since literally his first day in office, he has kept and fulfilled them. 

He could care less about the opinion of journalists, activists’ protests, the angry trolls on the internet, or even the opinions of Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande. He promised to build a wall on the border with Mexico, and now a decree on this is already ready. He promised to ban refugees from several Middle Eastern countries, and he did, despite the terrible scandal that has erupted in the media.

In fact, Trump’s critics don’t understand his main chip: his voters simply love when the liberal public in the US and Europe are writhing in anger and spitting poisonous saliva in television studios and newspapers. For the new American President’s voters and supporters, every tear of Madonna, Rihanna, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain are proof that Trump is real, that Trump is not like all the rest, and that Trump is exactly what America and the whole world need. When Merkel and Hollande criticize Trump for banning refugees, they’re primarily hurting themselves and showing that US-Europe relations have no future.

The new US President is a living rebuke to European leaders, and a big problem for their election campaigns. European propaganda has for so long told European voters about how good and wonderful the US is. Now voters will reasonably demand that European politicians repeat Trump’s steps, which they would never allow themselves to do. If Merkel or Hollange ban refugees along the American model, then Uncle Soros will leave them with no candy and maybe even flogged in the stables.

This new era could give birth to new, hitherto unthinkable alliances which seemed absolutely crazy just a few months ago. For example, Trump ordered the Pentagon not only to develop a 30-day program for completely destroying ISIS, but also a program for drawing in new forces to fight ISIS. In this case, “new forces” is a kind of euphemism for Russia, because nobody else is a suitable candidate. Trump needs a shining victory over ISIS, and he can achieve it only with the full cooperation of Russia. The destruction of ISIS would give the new team in the White House a very strong trump card for domestic political squabbles, deprive the Clinton group of a very important geopolitical tool, and give Trump the opportunity to concentrate American forces on a trade war – and maybe even a hot war- with China. 

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For now, Trump is earnestly fulfilling his promises and, most likely, he really will go for a tough confrontation with China. Without this, it’s impossible to fulfill the main point of his presidential program for the part of the elite that brought Trump to power. This point is namely returning manufacturing and American companies’ taxes to the US. China will be an inevitable victim of this policy of American-style de-globalization.

Trump’s desire to put China on its knees and his squabble with Europe are already leading to unexpected results. The US President wasn’t at the recent gathering of the world elite in Davos, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party was, who proceeded to speak in defense of globalization and against US isolationism. American journalists wrote that the world has gone mad: the Chinese leader is in favor of free trade while the US is erecting trade barriers. 

The common enemy in the face of the new Washington administration could temporarily unite the EU and China in a conditional alliance, even though this alliance will have very little leverage on Washington.

But the most important is understanding that the new world is a world of disorder, in which the old plans don’t always work and alliances are determined not by common interests, but common enemies. The wisest thing Russia could do in contemporary circumstances is quietly stand on the sidelines while the US, China, the EU, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Japan, Turkey, Taiwan, and a number of other countries go for each other’s throats. For at least a time we still need to spare our forces, resources, and people. 

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I’d really like to believe that the lessons of the two world wars will benefit us. In the coming global disorder, we do not need to be a hero with a drawn sword, but profit – preferably from all sides of the conflict. Our descendants will thanks us for this. 

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