Expectation of Ukraine’s decay is logical, but can lead to disaster — Chisamov


June 29, 2017 – Fort Russ News –

Ukraina.ru, translated by Tom Winter –

The editor’s word…Iskander Chisamov, Editor-in-chief Ukraina.ru

“Everything that happened with Ukraine after Euromaidan can be safely called a catastrophe. Today 85 percent of Ukrainians assess the situation in the country with the word “chaos,”and almost two-thirds recognize an inability to pay their utility bills.” and yet…

Russia clearly underestimates the Ukrainian threat. The blissful expectation of Ukraine’s self-decay can lead to disaster. 

In the Botanic Garden of Kiev last Sunday, a group of creative intelligentsia organized a bright art performance, the apotheosis of which was the collective chanting of a chant: “I’m not a dull turd, I’m a positive shit!” 

The audience noted a somewhat excessive naturalism, with which the corresponding fancy dress was made. The authors didn’t say what this aesthetic statement meant, – say, so take it as you want. Well, for example, I saw in it an act of harsh political satire. After all, just at this time President Petro Poroshenko was making an international voyage, whose acme – during a meeting with Donald Trump – was him saying that Ukraine is a success story, and he even generously took America as a co-author. In connection with this tour, of course, foreign and even domestic observers have peppered Pyotr Alekseevich. They noted the facts of importunity, fussiness, sucking up, and especially exhibiting on this background, manifestations of megalomania and self-confidence. 

Well, what success story? Everything that happened with Ukraine after Euromaidan can be safely called a catastrophe. Today 85 percent of Ukrainians assess the situation in the country with the word “chaos,”and almost two-thirds recognize an inability to pay their utility bills. They’ve blown off the Crimea and the Donbas, devastated the economy, disorganized the social organization, and not a single reform was brought to mind, all plans are buried by corruption and stupidity of the state apparatus.

All this is true. However, it seems to us that Peter Alekseevich spoke quite sincerely of the success story. Not shamming. He really thinks so. Because for him, as for the entire ruling class of Ukraine, none of the above matters. The impact has only one fact, it is even a success story. This fact is that the new Ukrainian state is in place. The post-Maidan regime has survived, strengthened, stabilized, it iss not threatened at all in the medium term – neither inside the country, nor outside. Most likely, Peter Poroshenko will long rule the country. But even if he disappears, the current political course will be preserved. And is this not an achievement? 

“the ideological base of the Ukrainian regime has already been fully formed. It is based on a holy war with Russia.”

The phenomenon of the post-Maidan regime has been well studied and described, although its vitality and malignancy are still greatly underestimated. But now for the first time there is an opportunity to predict the development of events in this country for the long term. Now you can try to create a picture of Ukraine’s future. Well, at least the contours. The economy, for example, will undergo a radical transformation. The national manufacturing industry will disappear altogether, five years on, only memories will remain of such enterprises as Antonov, Yuzhmash, Motor Sich and so on. Metallurgy will focus entirely on the extraction and export of raw materials – ore. Steelmaking will lose its importance, the industry will fall to the lowest redistribution. There will remain small fragments of the chemical industry, they will be inscribed in agro-industrial holdings under the aegis of the largest transnational corporations. Ukrainian oligarchs either disappear, or – which most likely – fit into new schemes as secondary partners.

The main part of the arable land is bought up by the above-mentioned corporations, and they will introduce here highly intensive plant growing technologies, avoiding the European restrictions on the use of GMOs and chemicals. Ukraine really will become an agrarian superpower, only the incomes will mostly go to other jurisdictions. Livestock, in particular, dairy, will flourish. There will also be foreign owners. 

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The situation in neighboring Moldova helps to visualize the prospect. There, American firms produce high-quality milk powder — but it all goes abroad since it is too expensive for the Moldovan market. Here, cheaper mixtures of incomprehensible chemical composition from other colonies are also on sale.  

We should expect a massive entrance of Chinese capital. Already, Chinese investors are gradually entangled in lending and are taking on such large assets as Ukrtelecom and Naftogaz, which are part of the energy and the agricultural sectors. Here, for sure, the history of Central Asian and many African states will repeat, where the Chinese have already carried out a large-scale economic invasion. 

Moreover, China views Ukraine as the backyard of the European Union, given the availability of a free trade zone and the cheapness of local labor. As the experience of many countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa shows, with this structure of the economy, the majority of the population of Ukraine can expect, at best, tidy poverty and hard work. A small part will find itself in a small business – mainly in the service sector. Extra labor will be dumped abroad by the millions. There will be a sea of crime and corruption. 

“The country as a whole will constantly balance on the brink of bankruptcy and completely depend on Western aid.”

There will be a super-powerful police apparatus, and the current volunteer battalions will be transformed into full-fledged death squads, to help the authorities keep the population in fear. –as is however, already happening. The country as a whole will constantly balance on the brink of bankruptcy and completely depend on Western aid. At the same time, Ukraine’s political class will be able to continue living comfortably, receiving its revenues for mediation, lobbying, and participation in the management of foreign assets. And this is the main factor in the stability of the political regime.

Today, the ideological base of the Ukrainian regime has already been fully formed. It is based on a holy war with Russia. The processing of the mass consciousness of Ukrainians, the upbringing of new generations, policy both domestic and foreign, the economy — all are subordinated to the interests of this jihad. Such things as the introduction of a visa regime and the cessation of direct rail service will occur inevitably and very soon. And the matter will move further towards the complete abolition of diplomatic relations, the erection of a fortified line along the entire Ukrainian-Russian border and the complete cessation of economic ties. All citizens of Russia who live and work in this country will be taken into strict account and control, sooner or later they will have to flee Ukraine. All these trends are indicated, and they will only increase. 

From the dull policy of petty dirty tricks and grumbling, the Kiev regime will inevitably pass to the most active procedures on all fronts and spaces. Soon a militarized and mobilized state capable of great provocations and military adventures will appear before us. 

And it will certainly happen if Russia continues to remain in a complacent expectation of Ukraine’s self-disintegration. The main strategic decisions regarding this country were taken in Moscow three years ago, in mid-2014. Let’s recall the main positions: Crimea is not discussed. The return of Donbass to Ukraine should launch a federalization process that will not allow Kiev to pursue a hostile policy towards Russia. The inevitable disintegration of the Ukrainian economy should strengthen the centrifugal tendencies and protest movements, which would guarantee not to allow the nationalist forces to implement the anti-Russian project. 

It seems that experts overestimated the importance of economic factors. Yes, everything happened as written: the economy of Ukraine is collapsing, social, communal, infrastructural, and other disasters are developing before our eyes, and the rot of corruption is eating the country. However, neither the centrifugal tendencies nor moods of protest are increasing. The mode only grows stronger. State terror and a system of total brainwashing can work miracles.

But the will of Kiev to cut off the rebellious republics was underestimated. If the Ukrainian authorities had the slightest desire to take the Donbass back, they would have fulfilled all Minsk agreements as far back as 2015, and for a year and a half they would have completely controlled the border and the whole territory of the LDPR. The reluctance to create a precedent for increased independence of the regions turned out to be stronger than the desire to restore the territorial integrity of the country. 

And most importantly, we clearly underestimated the very subjectivity of Ukraine. It was believed that this country lost its political sovereignty and is completely controlled from Washington, Brussels and Berlin. And – yes, the armed coup was largely secured by the West, and now Kiev is critically dependent on foreign loans and subsidies. Ukrainian politicians tirelessly and even brutally demonstrate their loyalty to Euro-Atlantic partners. However, in basic questions they do not bend to any pressure. Moreover, they often impose their will. How was it after Kiev disavowed the Minsk agreements? Merkel and Hollande first expressed surprise, then tried to squeak at Poroshenko, blackmail with tranches of the IMF. But, faced with the unyielding will of Kiev, they completely switched to his position. We can, of course, sneer at the diplomatic activity of Poroshenko and Klimkin. Yes, something looks ridiculous and provincial. And yet they manage to draw from their interlocutors some promises and expressions of solidarity in the confrontation of Russia. At a time when the collective West is in doubt and hesitation, Ukraine is struggling to strengthen the anti-Russian vector. And it is not clear who is using whom. So, Ukraine has taken its place as the most furious enemy of Russia. The entrenched political regime there is extremely unsympathetic. It is based on ideas of hatred and revenge. This regime does not feel sorry for its people, and even less does it feel sorry for others. And therefore it is extremely dangerous. Russia will have to work out a coherent response to this growing threat.

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