August 21 , 2017 – Fort Russ News –
Neither stable oil prices nor data on the recovery of the Russian economy could change the relations of foreign investors and hedge funds in the Russian market.
According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, investment funds use the period of temporary strengthening of the ruble in order to further strengthen its position on its fall. Over the past week, speculators increased the volume of short positions relative to the Russian ruble by almost 30%.
The overall “bear” rate against the ruble rose to 11,646 contracts or to 29.1 billion rubles, which was an absolute record for the entire period of statistical observations. The “bull” rate is almost 2.5 times lower than the “bear” rate – 4,846 contracts worth 12.1 billion. As a result, the rates for the ruble’s fall exceeded the positions opened for its growth by 6804 contracts, which is also an absolute record in the history of the available official data.
According to the Commission, it is clear that seven key players are playing against the ruble, which are constantly increasing sales in the ruble since May this year. During this time, their rates for the fall of the ruble increased by 10 times.
Experts recall that the current period of the traditional is not the best for the ruble, since it is in the second half of the summer that demand for currency increases due to the season of holidays and the dividend period. At the same time, the inflow of the currency is weakening due to a decrease in the volume of commodity exports.
The deficit of the current balance of payments only for June and July left about $ 5 billion, the Central Bank said. Analysts of “Sberbank” add that stocks of free liquidity have decreased almost threefold and now do not exceed $ 3 billion.
The main support for the ruble during the last half a year was speculative investment in the Russian public debt – $ 13.5 billion. But analysts warn that the carry-trade system could fail – if the US Federal Reserve goes on reducing the balance, then the bonds of developing countries will go under the knife first.
All this in aggregate can recline the Russian ruble from the current almost 59 rubles per dollar to 65 rubles.