November 5 , 2017 – Fort Russ News –
Although inspired and supported by the countries of the Persian Gulf and the United States of America, the war in Syria is ending.
The legitimate Syrian government controls more than half of the country’s territory, significant parts of the state border with Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, and almost all major cities and routes.
The so-called “Syrian opposition” controls certain unrelated pieces of Syrian land.
Syrian bandits/gangs do not have a single command and unified political administration, or a single representation, so they finance this war sporadically (with external support.)
The war began because of the desire of the Persian Gulf countries to build a corridor through Jordan to Turkey and into Europe. That did not eventuate.
Conflict between the countries of the Persian Gulf
Between the countries of the Persian Gulf, primarily between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, political contradictions have arisen. Both of these countries started looking for non-traditional diplomatic contacts – Qatar and Iran, Turkey and Russia, Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Turkey, which continues to support Syrian Turkomans and the occupation of part of the Syrian territory, nevertheless turns to the most profitable geopolitics – cooperation with Iran to use its unique geopolitical position on the former Great Silk Road between Europe and China.
Jordan and the United States of America are turning off support for militants operating in southern Syria.
The inevitable destruction of ISIS will follow, and territories controlled by various bandit formations – pro-Turkish in the province of Idlib in the north of Syria, pro-Israel in the province of Quneitra in south-west Syria, remain in the territory of Syria. The destruction of these bandit formations is a matter of time.
The main problem for the Syrian government in the near future will be the territories in the north-east, controlled by the Kurds. In these territories, there is also an Arab population, which is subject to genocide and ethnic cleansing by the Kurds.
A similar situation emerged on the other side of the Syrian-Iraqi border – in Iraq, where Iraqi Kurds seized significant territories of land with an Arab population.
The Iraqi government in recent days and weeks began to carry out operations to free the lands seized by the Kurds. During these operations, the extremely low fighting capacity of illegal Kurdish formations was evident.
Approximately the same situation is observed in Syria – Kurds can not overcome even the weak resistance of ISIS.
This means that the Kurdish problem in Syria will be solved in a fairly simple way – either by the Syrian Kurds recognizing the sovereignty of the Syrian government over the whole territory of Syria, or by the Syrian army’s forceful liberation from all the Syrian territory of illegal Kurdish armed formations.
The problem of US bases
A separate problem is the presence of illegal American military bases. The Americans demand from the Russian and Syrian armies not to carry out any operations within a radius of 50 kilometers from their bases.
Such problems can not always be solved only through diplomatic or political methods, sometimes forceful actions are needed to solve them. The Soviet Union was never afraid to use force against the American military.
In Vietnam, Soviet and Vietnamese military forces shot down more than 3,000 American aircraft, in Syria and Lebanon in 1982 and in 1983, several American and Israeli planes were shot down by Soviet and Syrian pilots and air defense systems. And there was no hot war between the USSR and the USA or between the USSR and Israel.
Military victory do not mean a political victory. If before the beginning of any peace talks, Syrian bandits calling themselves “Syrian opposition”, fought with weapons received from foreign sponsors, controlled at least some small piece of Syrian land that is now burning under their feet, this could have meant the possibility of partitioning Syria during peace talks.
Therefore, in Syrian and Russian interests, it was necessary to postpone the commencement of negotiations until the complete destruction of local gangs or until they were completely ousted from Syrian land.
The current pacification processes going on in Syria i politically dangerous, because they leave local gangsters a chance to save their lives and the possibility of coming to power in Syria by peaceful means.
Elections in Syria
The second factor that can significantly change the picture of the region is Russia’s preliminary consent to hold elections in Syria immediately after the war, at the same time that the wounds caused by the war are not yet healed.
When elections are held in Syria, the very bandits who could fight with their country and their people with weapons in their hands can come to power in Syria. The purpose of Russian military presence in the region is to restore the statehood and territorial integrity of Syria, so the danger of these gangs at political level is dangerous.
Simultaneously with the revival of a strong and united Syria, countries that have made a bid for the destruction of Syria, their participation in the war is associated with the weakening of their influence in the region.
Preservation of current leadership of the country in Syria in the long-term period will inevitably affect the neighboring countries of the region, who have spent huge resources on the destruction of Syria’s sovereignty.
The fall in world oil prices and natural gas, facilitated by the Persian Gulf countries, the sponsors of terror in Syria as well as the weakening of Russia’s financial strength, has already hit the countries themselves on the verge of budget deficits.
The countries of the Persian Gulf have created modern infrastructure during the years of the oil and gas boom, but they have not created alternative industries, alternative sources of earning money. Oil and gas money was put into savings, which at the current rate of spending can be exhausted in a few years.
The political problems accumulated in these countries, under the influence of the financial crisis and new problems caused by the war in the neighboring country, can lead to a political crisis.
Kings, sultans and emirs stand in line to bow to Putin
After the strengthening of the Russian military presence in Syria and the collapse of the unfulfilled hopes of laying oil and gas pipelines from the Persian Gulf to Turkey, and further into Europe through the territory of the former Syria, the kings, princes, sultans and emirs went to Moscow, lined up for talks with the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin.
In addition to the specific questions of all these rulers, one major question was at the epicenter: will their status continue in the future, in the New Middle East?
Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations between the leaders of these countries and the Russian leadership, it can be assumed that with the restoration of a united and strong Syria and the restoration of Iran’s status in the region, the status of these relatively small countries in the Persian Gulf will objectively change.
For these countries themselves, the issue of the future of modus vivendi will depend entirely on the policies of these countries towards Iran, Syria and their policies towards Russia.
The Turkish way and attempts to split Syria
Turkey, which has seen the last years of Erdogan’s rule with an absolutely insane aggressive foreign and domestic policy directed outwardly against Syria and against the Turkish Kurds, is reaping bitter fruits.
In Syria, Erdogan’s regime supports the Syrian Turkomans – a small Turkic-speaking people living in western Syria at the border with Turkey – local Syrian bandits calling themselves the “Syrian opposition”, who fought against their country and their people.
An attempt by Syrian Turkomans to split a piece of northern Syria and to annex it to Turkey has now failed.
Now the government of Syria controls virtually the entire territory of the settlement of Syrian Turkomans, some of whom fled to Turkey, a part swore allegiance to the Syrian government and now protect its territory from the bandits coming from Turkey.
An insignificant part of the Syrian Turkomans continues senseless resistance on a small piece of land adjacent to the Turkish border. Turkey itself was flooded by the inflow of refugees from Syria, caused by the war, largely provoked and supported by Turkey.
Turkey in recent months has changed its policy in the region. At the end of September, the meetings of Erdogan with Vladimir Putin and Ruhani took place. Iran twice visited the chief of the general staff of Turkey.
With Russia and Iran, not only political but also geopolitical issues were discussed, connected primarily to transcontinental transport corridors and the future of Syria.
Turkey, which previously did not use its geographical position due to a policy of confrontation between Russia and Iran, cooperating with Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf countries, is now trying to fill the lost time and take its place in history.
Most likely, the agreements reached with Russia and with Iran will allow Turkey to resist Kurdish nationalism and pursue a concerted or even joint policy in Syria based on the preservation of the territorial integrity of Syria.
The war in Yemen
Saudi Arabia, which took advantage of the lack of a Russian veto on the decision of the UN Security Council, approving the Saudi aggression against neighboring Yemen, suffers one defeat after another in Yemen.
Yemen periodically inflict defeat on Saudi aviation and Saudi mercenaries. The budget of Saudi Arabia suddenly became scarce because of the costs of the war and the fall in oil prices.
Saudi Arabia has turned from an investor into a lender and collects revenue from all investment projects. According to the calculations of economists, financial resources put aside for various funds, at the current costs and at the current world oil prices, the Saudi kingdom will last only five or six years.
At the same time, no new major investment project and no significant financial assistance to other countries and organizations can be considered – otherwise the money will run out even faster.
The weakness of Saudi Arabia is also indicated by the last visit of the Saudi king to Moscow. Usually the leaders of states come to Riyadh, therefore, probably, only the most urgent need forced the Saudi monarch to fly to Russia.
The change in Qatar’s policy towards neighboring countries and towards Russia, Turkey and Iran suggest that the trends in the Middle East are changing and it is necessary to be able to use these trends for important and profitable political decisions.
Israel vs Syria
The State of Israel in recent years has led its own small separate war against Syria.
For example, the treatment of international and Syrian militants without their subsequent internment and transfer to a fair court for the Syrian government, electronic and non-electronic reconnaissance of the territories of Syria and Lebanon, air strikes against objects in Syria, during which several dozens of soldiers and officers of the Syrian army and the Syrian people’s militia were killed. Only parts of this war are visible to the world.
Recently, some high-ranking Israeli military officials made public statements about the need for an invasion of Syria.
The goal of the State of Israel in Syria is to weaken and, preferably, dismember the united Syria for the preservation of its absolute military superiority in the region, formulated in the Israeli military-political doctrine.
These goals of the State of Israel are opposed to Russia’s goals in Syria – the goals of preserving and reviving a single, integral and strong Syria.
Earlier, in order to maintain its absolute military superiority, Israel carried out air strikes against Syrian air defense facilities, including those intended for deployment in Lebanon.
Whether this practice will continue in the future, or whether Israel will have to reconcile with the existence of a single, sovereign and strong Syria, largely depends on Russia’s position and the actions of Russian and Syrian air defense systems.
The US acts in the interests of Israel
The State of Israel is trying to maintain its superiority over Syria, without taking into account the factor of Russian and Iranian presence, and the revival of the Syrian state and the Syrian army.
The new American administration, compelled to submit to joint decisions of the congress and the Senate, necessarily pursues a policy of supporting the interests of Israel in the region.
In fact, the United States of America has not pursued its policies for a long time based on the national interests of its country, but pursues a policy in the interests of the American elite, which is closely connected with the Israeli one.
Russia, Iran and Syria: new goals of the winners
The new Middle East that is being born before our eyes will be different, and many countries of this region and the rest of the world will need to take in this reality and change their policy towards Syria, Iran and Russia.
To ensure the sovereignty and unity of Syria, it is necessary to support Yemeni husits, who resist Saudi aggression.
The prize for this, in the form of the Russian naval base in Aden, can become very important in connection with the global confrontation with the United States and regional confrontation with Israel and the Persian Gulf countries.
It is necessary to strengthen political and military cooperation with Egypt and Libya. It is necessary to resist Kurdish nationalism in Syria, Iran and Iraq.
The creation of a new Middle East with domination by Iran, Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Egypt and the elimination of the former Saudi-Israeli significance is the main Russian geopolitical task in the region.