Gabriel’s proposal is 1) a “Yugoslav scenario,” 2) counterproductive, and 3) will meet a Russian veto
January 4, 2018 – Fort Russ News –
– Andrei Petrov, in RuEconomics, translated by Tom Winter-
“The Yugoslav scenario” of Germany and France in the Donbass, with the support of the United States and Ukraine, will get stopped by the veto of Russia.
Moscow. The proposal of Sigmar Gabriel on the peacekeeping mission is not the implementation of the Minsk agreements, but instead an attempt to put the Donbass republics under the armed control of foreign troops in the “Yugoslav scenario,” believes RUDN* professor Yuri Pochta ….
Gabriel’s proposal: [See German Foreign Minister Goes Full Ukrainian]
“The staff of the UN peacekeeping mission should be armed and be on the whole territory of the Donbass, not to protect only OSCE representatives and stay only on the collision line, otherwise it will be a new frontier,” German Foreign Minister Zigmar Gabriel said at a briefing in Kiev.
According to him, Germany together with France and other partners in the UN Security Council will work on the introduction of a “real peacekeeping mission.” But without the consent of Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the Berlin initiative is not realizable.
“Of course, Russia will not support this proposal of Gabriel and will veto it if it comes up he will veto it. In his statements, it is about anything else, but not about the implementation of the Minsk agreements. The proposal for arming and establishing the OSCE mission throughout the Donbass region is an attempt, ignoring the Minsk agreements, to place the republics under the armed control of foreign troops in order to enable Kiev to restore order there by force.
“Gabriel’s statement rather goes to show that Germany, although it has now weakened its foreign policy activities due to its government crisis, is nevertheless an active participant in resolving the problems of the Donbass. Any initiative of Berlin, even the most unproductive, still resounds in the press, creating an informational platform and subsequent discussion,” the political scientist explained on Economics Today.
The role of the United States and the “Yugoslav scenario”
But in this case, Gabriel’s idea is not new. As our interviewee notes, we all know the history of Yugoslavia, when the peacekeeping forces in no way contributed to reconciliation between the hostile parties during the civil war.
“Moreover, they turned a blind eye to how the Kosovars or Croats were engaged in destruction, seizure of territory and ethnic cleansing. But if we did not have the experience of Yugoslavia, we might naively believe that the international peacekeeping forces are able to change something for the better. In fact, they will seek to eliminate the hotbeds of resistance in Ukraine, since Kiev is now the most important ally of the West, ensuring its interests,” Yuri Pochta continues.
A number of experts suggest that the United States plays the key role in trying to implement the “Yugoslav scenario” in the Donbass. In theory, Germany, as the guarantor of the Minsk Agreements, should act with positions similar to Russia in resolving the conflict, but Berlin is under severe pressure from Washington, which does not give up attempts to somehow destabilize the situation on the border with Russia.
“The United States is still shaping its position on Ukraine, as Trump continues to fight for his powers as president: on this issue, there are very serious contradictions between the White House, the State Department, the CIA, and the Pentagon. On the one hand Volcker makes contradictory statements, but on the other hand he remains a supporter of a violent solution to the conflict. On the whole, we do not see an original and resolute position from Washington that could really bring the current situation out of the deadlock,” the political scientist sums up.
*Peoples Friendship University of Russia