By Denis Churilov, for FRN
I would really like to believe that the summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un would lead to a long-lasting peace and prosperity for all, as it has been declared by the two leaders.
If Trump and Kim manage to carry on successfully with, at least, some of the declarations they made on 12.06.2018 – that would truly make it an amazing diplomatic action worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize, no doubt.
What concerns me, however, is the pattern of the US behaviour that is seen in recent history, with them and their proxies/allies making U-turns on some of the major agreements, e. g. the Iranian Deal, the assurances given to Viktor Yanukovich days before the EU let him to be violently ousted, or the previous deals made with Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, and dozens of other examples that didn’t end well for those who trusted the US official rhetoric.
And don’t forget the friendly handshakes between Barack Obama and Muammar Gaddafi shortly before the later was let to be brutally murdered by barbaric extremists supported by the US.
Also, keep in mind that the United States has multiple political, industrial, and financial groups, all with their own interests (that don’t necessarily fall in line with public declarations made by the Trump Administration, with many blatantly and directly opposing everything the POTUS does), so, even if Trump is being sincere with his peace making efforts now, we should all be aware of his limitations when it comes to actually implementing the declared policies.
Well, let’s hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
There’s a word, a conspiracy theory even, that Kim Jong-un was trying to establish good relations with the United States because he wants to… break out of Chinese geopolitical orbit.
Some Wikileaks materials show that since the current leader of North Korea came to power, he’s been rather reluctant to follow China’s line, unlike his father and grandfather. At least, that’s what some American diplomats used to think. The Chinese officials and military commanders have been getting increasingly frustrated with his political manoeuvres, apparently, so Kim decided to work on those elaborate diplomatic schemes that lead him closer to the US, as he was afraid that People’s Republic of China might interfere militarily.
Therefore, Kim Jong-un would actually prefer the US to have a stronger military presence on the Korean Peninsula (e. g. having more troops and military bases in South Korea), as it would restrict China and secure his position as a leader of North Korea (at least short-term).
Just a theory. We don’t know whether it’s actually true, and whether Kim Jong-un actually had serious beef with the Chinese leaders – that’s just what some people from the US diplomatic and intelligence community used to say in their internal memos and paid lectures not so long ago (and, oh boy, they are often so wrong in their judgment; read Hillary Clinton’s thoughts on Ukraine and Eurasian Trade Union when she was a State Secretary, for instance – she doesn’t normally hold herself as a particularly sophisticated or insightful politician on the issues that are of a grave geostrategical importance). So it might all be just nonsense.
If it’s true, however, then Kim is a naive, Gorbachev-like loser who didn’t get a lesson from his father’s mistakes (Kim Jong-il too used to make long-term nuclear program suspension deals with the United States, only to be ripped off; and we’ve also been observing similar thing with the Iranian Deal since Trump came to While House).