The slogan “We need Berlin!”, is practically realized. Germany is persistently building up the “Nord Stream-2”, balancing the discontent both of its Washington and its Eastern European allies.
The EU is in crisis, European politicians and experts are forecasting disintegration, and the need for reform is being touted.
One thing is clear, in the form in which it existed so far, the EU will not exist in the near future. Will there be a centralized Franco-German “Fourth Reich”, will the EU dump Eastern European ballast, returning to the original Western European format, will Europe have strong national states? In any case the kingdom of the supranational euro-bureaucracy collapses in front of our very eyes.
Yesterday Brussels which yesterday had national governments ready to jump and ask ‘how high?’ at its discretion, can do very little today.
NATO is in crisis. The United States admits that it can not protect Europe, in the case of an “attack by Russia”. At the same time, a significant part of Europe (from the Bulgarians to the same Germans) begins to view the Russian military-political umbrella as a desirable alternative to the American one. Meanwhile, the creation of the European Army is becoming more active. The process is of course long and difficult, we can say endless, but this is not the result, but the demonstrative opposing of the hypothetical “independent European defense” to the US controlled NATO that is important.In Syria, Assad successfully finishes the US-activated insurgents of all stripes and colors. And in Ukraine, the local oligarchy, without any serious efforts from Russia, is completing the dismantling of the Ukrainian state and the final discrediting of the idea of Ukrainian statehood.
The only thing that now disturbs Moscow and Berlin is that Ukrainians do not too quickly liquidate Ukraine. It takes some time to finally get rid of dependence on Ukrainian transit, and also to agree on positions on the future in front of the coming chaos, including the allocation of funds needed to create a new economy and restore the normal lives of the remaining people. Russia quite clearly nudges the European Union, they should take the burden of reconstruction given their active role in Ukraine’s destruction.
And it did not take any armored armada, advancing, either to Lvov, or to Paris. There were no multi-billion investments in the “creation of the pro-Russian stratum” in the ranks of the “creative class” (roughly speaking, the bribery of media suites). The nationalists themselves convincingly demonstrated to the population that Ukraine is incapable of independent existence, that normal life in this territory is possible only if it enters the Russian orbit.
The Ukrainian political leaders rendered an enormous service to Russia. They themselves severed all cooperation ties and destroyed Ukrainian industry, which acted as a natural competitor to the Russian industry. Moreover, before the implementation of the import substitution program, Russia depended on the supply of a huge range of Ukrainian products. In many respects depended critically.
If it were not for the distinctive policy of the Ukrainian authorities (all authorities, not just the latter) aimed at breaking the cooperation ties, the program of import substitution would never have been realized (no one will invest billions in building duplicating enterprises or bypassing pipelines if supplies are rhythmic and transit guaranteed). So today’s Russian industrial power is an unintentional merit of the Ukrainian authorities deindustrializing Ukraine in the interests of Russia.
But now, when, as already said, the expectations of four years ago became a reality, the question “What will happen next with Ukraine?” has not lost its relevance.
The hopes of Ukrainian nationalists to help the West failed. The West itself needs assistance (at least politically and diplomatically) in Russia. Washington and Brussels have long been willing to give Ukraine to Moscow in order not to incur political, financial and reputational costs because of the behavior of their local protégés, but with the inherent mercantile nature of the West, they want something in return.
And Russia does not want to give anything to them. On the contrary, Moscow rightly believes that the West, which suffered geopolitical defeat, as a kind of reparations, should just leave with things how they now have them (nothing in return), in Ukraine in particular.
And we are not talking about the evacuation of pro-Western politicians and the dismantling of the regime, with this the Ukrainian authorities are doing this to themselves just perfectly, but about financial participation in the restoration of the destroyed habitat, which in the best years has fed more than fifty million people.
But in order to start something to rebuild, it is necessary to get rid of the current Ukrainian regime, to practically nullify the composition of the highest political echelon. This can not be done by the West. Russia can not do this either. Not because such a decision is difficult. What is easier to collect an international tribunal for Ukraine. From the murdered in the coup of the “heavenly hundred”, to the Malaysian “Boeing”, from the attempted genocide of the population of Donbass, to the murders of May 2, 2014 in Odessa, from mass violations of human rights, to even more massive corruption – there will be enough charges. To sit for a long time, if not forever, you can all – from the “experts” and journalists, which constitute the informational support of the regime, to politicians and oligarchs who are its main beneficiaries.
But this is inefficient. For again there will appear folk storytellers who will convince gullible new generations who have not seen the results of nationalist rule, that if it were not for Russia, which had displaced the Ukrainian power by force, these descendants of the Sumerians would be bored of their prosperity.
The Ukrainian political elite should carry out the genocide of the Ukrainian political elite. And she will cope with this task. Moreover, she already copes. In fact, this is the only task that the Ukrainian rulers seem to burden themselves with. But so what, finishing each other off is something they delight in, they are wonderful at this.
The destruction of any competition is the essence of the Ukrainian regime. It grew up from small-time gangs that put the squeeze on small shop owners, and into the size of a full-sized state, but it did not change its habits and methods.
There can not be two gangs in the market, someone has to leave. And in the Ukrainian state there can not be two oligarchs, there can not be competing politicians or parties. There can be only an absolute vertical of subordination and of one mind. Every politician, every oligarch in Ukraine, strives, strives and will seek to concentrate in his hands all power and property.
Now the weak link is Poroshenko, against whom there was an oligarchic consensus, which made a bet on Tymoshenko. In order not to change one burglar, to another, even more dangerous, the oligarch decided to realize the idea of decentralization of the Ukrainian authorities.
Therefore, Tymoshenko started talking about the transformation of Ukraine into a Chancellor republic (with a weak president and a strong but dependent on the parliament, the government) and the practical transformation of it into a federal state with a bicameral parliament. Among other things, this is for Russia a demonstration that Yulia Vladimirovna can do what Poroshenko could not do (execute the key points of Minsk).
We, however, know that Tymoshenko is not one of those people who refuses absolute power, on the contrary, what powers she is not already conferred, she will assume for herself. We also know that the Ukrainian political tradition presupposes the concentration of power in the same hands. The post can be called anything: the president, the prime minister, the chairman of the Supreme Council, even the first secretary of the party’s Central Committee, but the essence of this will not change – the ruler will in any case be super-authorized and single. Therefore, Tymoshenko easily promises to become a chancellor, realizing that it is not the title of the post that matters, but in intercepting Poroshenko’s real levers of state governance.
Tymoshenko in the fight against Poroshenko, is trying to rely on the parliament and regional elites. In order for these structures to effectively support it, they must be strong and Tymoshenko tries to strengthen them, offering explicitly to assign them additional powers and calling (by Baloga’s lips) to form their own power structures.
But once the assigned authority, no one will just give it away later. In the struggle against Poroshenko, Tymoshenko forms and strengthens the columns of her future enemies. As soon as she tries to become the sole leader, the accumulated forces will be thrown against her and the experience gained in the fight against Poroshenko will be used. That is, Tymoshenko’s confrontation with her current allies is inevitable. And she cannot emerge victorious from this fight. For the same reason that Poroshenko could not and can not win in the Ukrainian political struggle. Against him, as against a too strong politically a figure, everyone is united, but no one can win.
Thus, the Ukrainian political elite, continuing the internecine struggle, is leading the matter to the further disintegration of the state and to its self-destruction. It’s too late to transform Ukraine into a federal republic. The economy that united it was destroyed. Regions are becoming more self-sufficient now, and the capital (central government) does not give them anything but problems. In these circumstances, the mobilization of regional elites to fight against Poroshenko, threatens to become a critical turning point, during which regional elites are finally aware of their interests, learn joint actions and will have the experience of successful struggle. Further it does not matter how the central authority will be called. She will be hated by any regions (though with a scythe, even in a crumpled suit).
At the same time, starting from 2014, the losers of elite groups go not to the opposition, but to emigration (Azarov), to the prison (Efremov) or to the cemetery (where Yanukovich tried to send him, during his epic escape). That is, each new conflict leads to the reduction of the traditional elite, to the exhaustion of its forces, and the aspirants to the new elite, raised themselves by the old Nazis, who now breathe down their necks. For the present, militants are used in intra-elite disassembly. But they too are quite capable of realizing their own interest and their own possibilities. Moreover, they are about to gain experience of acting on the side of regional elites against President Poroshenko. The power of the oligarchs is desacralized. And there are no other candidates for the national power in Ukraine. The economic foundation of the national power is destroyed.
Now the main thing is that the complete collapse does not occur before the end of the year. For a while, the gas pipelines will still work, and in 2019 Nord Stream-2 will already work, after which the value of Ukraine in all senses will be reduced to zero.