MOLDOVA CRISIS BREWING: Experts fear a ‘Maidan’ Scenario

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In November 2018, parliamentary elections will be held in Moldova, but their results can be annulled if the vote results contradict the interests of the forces controlling the processes in the country, Sergei Panteleev, director of the Institute of Russian Abroad, told the “Parliamentary Gazette“. This can be an event that sets off a further series of destabilizing events.

“Moldovan society is now split: there is a pro-Russian president and a pro-Western parliament. Thus it is impossible not to take into account the factor of the oligarchy. If the scenario of the parliamentary elections does not go the way certain forces controlling the processes in Moldova would like, the election results can be canceled,” Panteleyev said.

Moreover, the precedent was already: on June 25, the Supreme Chamber of Justice of Moldova annulled the results of the election of the Mayor of Chisinau. According to the court decision, the candidates participating in the election campaign committed violations that affected the outcome of the vote.

Thousands of people have protested against the nullification of mayoral election results in Moldova’s capital, Chisinau. On June 24, protesters marched from the city hall to the Moldovan parliament. The June 3 municipal runoff was won by pro-Western candidate Andrei Nastase, but court rulings annulled the results, citing violations of the country’s campaign laws by both candidates.



“Many technologies of interference in the life of another state have already been tested in Ukraine. We would hate to see this scenario happen again,” Panteleyev said. “Much will depend on how much the pro-Russian opposition is ready to unite the people. Now there is no unity in these forces, they are seriously competing with each other “.

These technologies refer to the ‘Maidan’ or ‘Color-Spring’ type technologies of regime change and extra-constitutional or extra-legal governmental change processes which use a combination of synthesized ‘popular resentment’, the development of ‘regime’ discourse, and the demonization of the ruling strata.

Igor Tulyantsev, chairman of the Moldovan public council “For a free country”, told the “Parliamentary Newspaper” that the Moldovan split and unification with Romania can be resisted not by the Moldovan opposition, but only by the multinational people of the country.

Because Moldova also has other national groups besides identifying Romanians, these groups are organized around the idea of  Moldova as a multinational state which sees itself as Moldovan in a contemporary or modern sense. They prefer the reach of minority rights which the Moldovan state inherited from its tenure in the USSR. It is also a base of pro-Russian support. So there are numerous contradictions in this question.

“Now Moldova is under external control. And even the opposition parties of the country cooperate with the regime for their own benefit, therefore it is impossible to speak about a serious opposition to the anti-Russian course in Moldova,” the expert believes. According to him, local politicians will not be able to prevent the movement for the unification of Moldova and Romania.

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“If Romania and the collective West are interested in Moldova, and the head of the Democratic Party of Moldova, oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc will receive from them some advantageous offer, it will not be able to prevent him from the opposition, but only the multinational Moldovan people,” Tulyantsev said.

In short the divisions in Moldova today are complex. Romania and Moldova share a common language, history, and other qualifying features and qualities of a single people. The present division of the two states has a history, but was revisited with the divisions of Europe made in the 1930’s and 40’s.

While there is a strong impetus for there to be a referendum to conjoin the two states, Romania’s present government is pro-Atlanticist, and the relationship between both NATO and the EU of Romania’s present oligarchy makes such a reunification geopolitically unacceptable, as a change in the balance of power would also occur.

At the same time, if the people of Moldova and Romania demonstrate a strong democratic outpouring to conjoin the two states, then it would appear that Russia has to adjust its policy in that regard. To date, reunification talk is promoted by Atlanticist vectors, but also Romanian nationalist ones which view Atlanticist concerns are secondary, temporal, or irrelevant. Therefore, a division exists here which could be exploited.

Russia has invested heavily in maintaining and guaranteeing good relations with Moldova – the historic part of Romanian lands which were part of the USSR and not part of Soviet allied Romania. Thus we have a problem where we have split oppositions, and split issues, which are arranged in ways that create the perfect storm.

FRN has followed Romania and Moldova events of regional significant, and will continue to follow this story as it develops.

 

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edited and arranged from pnp.ru , by J. Flores

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