Will Turchinov’s mad nuclear dream ever come to be?

By Andrey Babitsky

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By Andrey Babitsky – The theme of the Budapest Memorandum, both in relatively decent and in the wildest forms, emerges from time to time on the surface of Ukrainian political discourse.

Five days ago it was touched by the leader of the association “Fatherland” Yulia Tymoshenko, who declared the need to return to this treaty, under which there are signatures of the USA, Russia, Ukraine, France and China. She mentioned this issue in a traditional way.

The Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly stated that Russia grossly violated its obligations, having torn off the Crimea and allegedly took part in an armed conflict in the Donbass. According to Kiev, in exchange for an agreement to renounce the possession of nuclear weapons, Moscow gave guarantees not to use force against the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

The Russian position treats the problem somewhat differently. The Memorandum was not ratified by the Russian parliament, so its binding provisions did not actually come into force. This alone would have been enough not to recognize the treaty as a legal document, but there is one more circumstance that Russian President Vladimir Putin somehow drew attention to.

According to this, since there was a coup in Kiev, during which the government was seized unconstitutionally, we should talk about the establishment of a new state called Ukraine. It can not be considered the legal successor of the former Ukraine, and consequently the operation of the treaties signed earlier does not apply to it.

This fruitless dispute has been going on for many years, but it, at least, has a relatively sane character. But this topic has a distinct psychiatric context that radical Ukrainian politicians like to update from time to time.

Back in 2009 Viktor Yushchenko, when he was president, announced the need to revise the Budapest Memorandum, easily hinting that the status of a non-nuclear country is not what Ukraine needs.

After Maidan, statements about the need to return the country to nuclear weapons and the status of a nuclear power began to be heard often, and in 2014 the Verkhovna Rada even registered the draft law on denunciation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of July 1, 1968 and the Budapest Memorandum signed on its basis.

It is clear, that further business did not go on for several reasons. Ukraine has neither industrial nor scientific potential for the production of nuclear weapons.

In addition, Kiev’s senior partners would not under any circumstances allow it to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, since nuclear parity in the world has already become an extremely questionable matter after a club of countries possessing nuclear weapons without any permission broke into newcomers such as Pakistan or North Korea.

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Western friends of Ukraine can not be completely sure how adequate it is to to do such a thing. Is it not enough that Ukrainians do not and can not have nuclear weapons, the North Koreans also did not exist for the time being.

But even the talks about returning to the status of a nuclear power can make Europeans and Americans nervous, because they testify to at least a strange attitude of the Ukrainian authorities to prohibitions that are considered bans of the highest level.

This time, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Turchynov made adangerous and fraught consequences for the injured area . In an interview with the Ukrainian branch of the Interfax agency, he said that Ukraine should work on creating a strategic deterrent to counter Russia:

“Until Ukraine has become a member of NATO, and this is not a close prospect, we are forced to rely solely on ourselves. What can stop an aggressive nuclear country from a massive invasion?

Only modern, powerful deterrent weapons. Like our partners or not, but we must work on such a strategic level weapon, a weapon that can effectively hit the enemy at any distance. “

Although there were no words about nuclear weapons, it is understandable that since it is about something that can stop the “aggressive nuclear country” and “hit the enemy at any distance”, then this is it. Turchinov also went through the Budapest Memorandum, saying that it was not worth the paper on which it was written.

The problem here is that to abandon the extremely important obligations – no, not before Russia, God would be with her, but before the US and France – is not offered by any MP with deviant behavior, not a marginal, not a mad expert, whom in Ukraine they release , it seems in some secret laboratory for the production of biorobots with a downed program, and a state official of the highest rank, one of the leaders of the state, responsible for security throughout the country.

This discovery is not very pleasant, although I do not think that the Western partners and curators will somehow react sharply to what has been said. To the fact that in Kiev today, utterances are said that gays are neighbors with Nazis, and the whole president says that the Minsk format is not in nature, everyone has long been accustomed to it.

The words of Ukrainian politicians are not equal to the actions in most cases, and therefore a statement like a secretary seems to be something like the Soviet, even if the country can afford to miss the ears, writing them off on the usual for these edges of confusion.


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