By Rostislav Ishchenko – Poroshenko decided to build his election campaign to destabilize the country. This move could be effective, although extremely risky, if Peter Alekseevich understood what game he was up to and is really ready to go to the end. In principle, destabilization is necessary in order to obtain a quasi-legitimate reason to cancel the elections, to extend its rule without prior arrangement, repress political competitors and establish a dictatorship.
Today such a move in Ukraine is possible – neither the Americans, nor the Europeans, nor Russia will interfere in the showdown of relations in the Ukrainian political terrarium. Whoever won, whoever killed, the situation will not seriously change. But there is even a small, but hope that the winner in the internecine struggle for some time will be able to stabilize the situation, and Ukraine will still stretch a little in half-life, not crossing the final line and not distracting global players from serious matters, the need to decide the future of people and of the territories that constituted the Ukrainian state.
Hope, of course, is scanty, since practically none of the Ukrainian politicians have a chance to defeat all real and potential, present and future opponents quickly. That is, in theory, their struggle should develop into a protracted armed civil conflict, which only catalyzes the process of disintegration. But somehow no one can influence the processes going on in Ukraine. Rather, no one wants. This is quite a costly undertaking that does not bring any quick effect (you can wait for positive results in 15-20 years, or more), but distracting yourself with scarce resources at a time when the world economy can break down at any moment in such a crisis, compared to which The great depression is a slight misunderstanding.
This crisis will further stimulate civil conflicts in countries with weak economies and destroyed administrative and political structures, among which, of course, Ukraine. So, there are practically no chances to dodge the transfer of the civil war to Kiev and Lviv. But until recently there was the possibility of choosing the format of civil conflict.
It could develop in the format of nationalists and “European integrators” (the same nationalists, only in profile) against national minorities, could begin as clashes of private armies owned by politicians and business, as well as formally state power structures controlled by them, could result in an anti-oligarchic elemental a riot of the lower classes, for the suppression of which the same nationalist illegal and legalized armed groups would have been thrown (the latter format would suggest the spread of the Donbass situation in the whole Ukraine).
But now Ukraine is closest to a civil war on religious grounds. And to avoid this conflict is almost impossible. Too many interested in further exacerbation of the situation. There are too few who understand what this can result in. In addition, a significant part of the figures influencing the development of events is outside Ukraine.
Greek Bartholomew from Istanbul, who provoked this conflict, doesn’t care how many Orthodox in Ukraine will perish and how many churches will be destroyed. The main thing for him is to create his own exarchate on this territory, than he plans to sharply raise his influence in the Orthodox world, which does not seek to obey the wishes of the candidate for the Orthodox papacy, who has a microscopic church, subordinate to the Turks and the heir of the Uniates.
The Roman throne even earlier (at the time of the Commonwealth) tried to extend its influence to Ukraine with fire and sword, and now does not particularly worry about the price of influence. In Rome, it is perfectly calculated that, having gone into schism, having lost the trust and support of true Orthodox, being spotted with the blood of believers, Bartholomew will need support, and for the sake of this support will calmly once again accept the union, recognizing the priority of the papacy.
The so-called Kyiv Patriarchate can expect to win the struggle for the souls of believers from the UOC-MP only by force. And not even simply selecting the temples and monasteries, but pushing the UOC MP out of Ukraine in principle. It is not by chance that they, being a purely Ukrainian church, are constantly called the church of the aggressor country and spread rumors that the UOC is allegedly controlled from Chisty Lane, or even directly from the Kremlin.
Poroshenko needs an undoubted victory over Russia on the eve of the elections. For this, it is also not enough for him to create some kind of autocephalous structure (the Ukrainian Patriarchate or the Kiev Exarchate of the Istanbul Patriarchate). He needs the liquidation of the UOC-MP. Russia can only stop it by force, but this will immediately give everyone an opportunity (from Bartholomew to Poroshenko) to make a hysteric about the “aggressive intervention of Moscow in the Ukrainian internal church conflict.” If Russia does not intervene, the Russophobic agitators will serve it as the Kremlin’s cowardice and declare Poroshenko’s unequivocal victory.
The fact that the military actions against the UOC are preparing is evidenced by at least a recent injection of the storming of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra that has begun. This fake alarm allowed the militants to study the work of the warning system for the defenders of Lavra, to assess the possible timeline for their collection and the number of people able to quickly catch up to the walls of the shrine. In addition, such stuffing work and demobilization effect. People get used to false news about the assault, and when this news turns out to be real, it will take more time to get confirmation that this time it has begun.
The monks of the Pochaev Lavra also appealed to their parishioners to be ready to speak in defense. It is clear that this statement was made by them on the basis of specific information on the preparation of the seizure.
It should be borne in mind that the militants are not only armed, but also mobile, better organized, enjoy state support. At a critical moment, they can preempt the believers and have time to break into the monasteries before the defenders catch up. By the way, they have enough strength to attack several monasteries at once, and logic dictates that it is more efficient to capture both laurels at the same time, since after the capture of the first, the believers will surely start guarding the second permanently.
Nevertheless, militants cannot capture all the temples and monasteries at the same time. In addition, one cannot rule out attempts to recapture the captured. Especially iconic temples, cathedrals, monasteries, laurels. Already at this stage, blood should be shed almost inevitably.
The so-called Patriarch of Kiev and All Ukraine Filaret (Denisenko) never stopped before blood, and will not stop this time either. He and especially will not restrain. Let me remind you that Constantinople needs not an independent Kyiv Patriarchate, but its own exarchate in Ukraine. Since the Primate of the UOC the Most Blessed Onufry took a tough stance and is not going to merge with the schismatics in the “local church”, Filaret will have to clear the hierarchy of the UOC. Moreover, he cannot postpone the beginning of active actions for a long time, since the actions of Bartholomew / Poroshenko have already caused the consolidation of the episcopate of the UOC-Orthodox Church around the metropolitan Onufriy. The influence of the autocephalist grouping in the UOC was undermined and continues to fall. Active actions are necessary for supporters of autocephaly to change the situation in their favor. They need at least a small, but split in the UOC-MP,
After the Moor (Denisenko) does his job, he will most likely be helped to leave this world. He would not agree to “degrade” from the patriarchs to the exarchs, and Rome and Constantinople have a wealth of experience in solving complex issues with the help of unexpected deaths of high-ranking church hierarchs, including the popes themselves. The death of Philaret (Denisenko) who compromised himself by the bloodshed is unlikely to cause a violent reaction in society, and he is no longer young, in January 2019 he should be 90 years old.
The next, not elected, Poroshenko will leave, and Bartholomew must remain alone in a clearing cleared by his accomplices. Well, then move beyond the Vatican. I do not know how long it will take him to incite Constantinople to the union, but the popes can wait.
As we see, in all cases, everything comes up against the fact that most of the actors in the looming tragedy cannot wait, they need to resolve the issue with the UOC-MP (I emphasize, not with the “Tomos” and not with the autocephalous), but Poroshenko elections. At the same time, neither Filaret nor Poroshenko apparently understand that the patriarch of Fenar is going to use them and throw them away, with some of them even possible from life.
In a short time (less than six months), they can solve their problems (they think that their problems) only by force. Moreover, if Filaret (Denisenko) most likely imagines what great blood is being spoken about, then Poroshenko seems to be sure that he will be able to solve the problem, although with violence, but without casualties. And it is unlikely that someone will tell him what he is pushing the country to.
Clashes on religious grounds are almost inevitable because they are in the mainstream of Poroshenko’s destabilizing policy; they are advantageous to most of the actors playing on the side of Kiev. Poroshenko does not understand how dangerous (including for himself personally) the game he started. There is no time for autocephalists to stop and sensibly assess the situation in which they clearly lose.
translated by and for FRN –