There will be a worsening situation in Donbass only after a clear directive from the Ukrainian president, Pyotr Poroshenko, is given to restart a full-blown conflict. However, this this requires a “nod” from Washington, believes a specialist in the field.
Earlier, the leader of the country watched the Chistoe Nebo (Clear Sky) military maneuvers in the Khmelnitsky region and ordered the security forces to open fire should it be necessary to “save human lives.”
“It’s a pre-election rhetoric on his part, there will be no aggravation at all without a nod from Washington’s patrons” says Sergei Panteleev, director of the Russian Foreign Institute during a discussion on the subject.
In the opinion of the expert, the Ukrainian security forces, except the “punitive battalions” composed of nazi brigades, are not very anxious to attack.
Meanwhile, Poroshenko tries to increase his popularity through declarations of a warlike character, he explained.
In April 2014, Ukrainian authorities began a military operation against the self-proclaimed republics of Lugansk and Donetsk, which had proclaimed independence after the coup that struck Ukraine in February 2014. According to the latest UN data, the conflict has already taken more than 10,000 lives.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has extended the law on the special status of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions until 2019, showing that Kiev authorities do not intend to hear the voice of the republics, writes the German newspaper Junge Welt.
The paper stresses that Donbass’s special status is fiction. It is assumed that this should be established after the holding of regional elections under Ukrainian legislation. However, in reality, this can put an end to both republics.
According to the media, the problem is that this law is formally based on the Minsk Accords, which provide for the withdrawal of armaments, an amnesty and other facilities for the residents of the two regions, measures that must be taken by the Ukraine. The point is that Kiev does not want to hear about it, being that its is position backed by the US.
If the law were not extended, Ukraine would automatically become a party that more obviously violates the Minsk Accords. In that case, it is quite possible that the matter would be solved by military means, which would lead to a war. If that happens, the result is likely to be negative for the Kiev authorities, writes the issue.