LONDON, United Kingdom – UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced on Monday that the country’s parliament will vote on the Brexit agreement on December 11, less than three weeks from now.
On Sunday, leaders of the European Union have decided to approve an agreement on the UK’s exit from the bloc next year. The 585-page document, 185 articles and three protocols include issues such as the rights of European citizens in the United Kingdom and vice versa, the £39 billion bill London must pay, and the solution to avoid a border with police surveillance on the island of Ireland.
The question that remains is: what would be the effects of Brexit for Brazil? Two experts on the subject were consulted to try and understand how this process of exiting the European Union will affect Brazilian commercial relations.
For Luiz Carlos Prado, a specialist in International Economics and professor at UFRJ, we will hardly see a change in the short term.
“In the next two years there will be a transition period and I believe that in this period there should be no difference of policy, there should be a certain continuity of agreements made so far,” he explained.
Ramos ponders that despite the transition period, it is legitimate for Brazil to be concerned about the terms of Brexit.
“The British economy is an important importer of Brazilian agricultural products, it seems to me that the concern is plausible that it makes sense to follow the process to avoid losses to the Brazilian export economy. It is important to know what the British policy will be like for this area, but it will probably be more liberal than that of the European Union,” he said.
For Thiago Babo, a professor at FECAP (Fundação Álvares Penteado School of Commerce), it is necessary to be very cautious in analyzing what would be the impacts of Brexit to Brazil.
“There are reasons, but we have to be very careful not to create a big alarm on that. I still think that the main problem that Brexit can have for Brazil is to discourage the British economy itself, which would hurt trade between Brazil and the UK, but it’s all still very uncertain,” he said.
However, Thiago Babo points out, for example, that the European Union will be forced to strengthen itself to stay alive as a bloc.
“I believe that we are in a good moment to have an increase in trade relations between Brazil and the European Union. We must not forget that if the United Kingdom does indeed leave, the European Union needs to strengthen itself in every possible way to avoid the exit of other countries in the bloc,” he said.
Currently, Brazil exports $2.4 billion a year to the United Kingdom. For the EU, the total reached $33.9 billion at the end of October.