By Rostislav Ishchenko – In recent days, in connection with Poroshenko’s blatant violation of all international norms, a regime trouncing articles of the Constitution and laws of Ukraine governing relations between church and state, experts and politicians often ask a question (not always rhetorical): isn’t he afraid of consequences?
After all, any competent lawyer can prove a whole bunch of criminal offenses, of which the smallest is the excess abuse of power and official authority.
I must say that Poroshenko’s actions do not surprise me. I am surprised by the questioners.
We will analyze the situation.
As you know, Poroshenko was a parishioner of the UOC-MP, which he is now so zealously fighting. It is assumed that he believed in God, otherwise he would not have attended church and served as a subdeacon. Now he has renounced this church and is fighting it in support of schismatics and frank speculators. Therefore, Poroshenko is not afraid of God’s judgment. But what of trials in this life?! Still, God’s Judgment decides the fate of the soul in eternity, while human judgment can only punish you once and then, as compared with eternity, for an elusively short amount of time. So you still have to be able to muster a defense and they have to prove your guilt.
But let us assume that Poroshenko only pretended to be church-going, in order to get the support of the parishioners of the UOC-MP in various kinds of elections; that in fact, he had never been a believer and for the Divine Court he has no fear.
In this case, remember that the charges of usurping power, abuse of power and official authority, war crimes, crimes against humanity, the organization of mass corruption at the state level and much more, including banal theft from the budget and the organization of fraudulent foreign trade schemes, and so Poroshenko can face charges (some since 2014, some from 2015, and some from 2016). Given that the hardest of these accusations do not have a statute of limitations, and the prosecution for them is carried out all over the planet, Poroshenko does not risk anything new.
In some countries, they sometimes sentence people to five life-time sentence and more, the death penalty (we were joking about the “ten years of execution”). But in fact, you can execute someone only once. In our time, with the exception of certain special tribunals (for example, according to Saddam Hussein), the death penalty is not assigned as a punishment. The maximum will give life, and then they can release, in 10-20 years, when the wave subsides.
So new and new crimes committed by Poroshenko, does not worsen his situation. It is worse than ever. They are designed to improve it.
Poroshenko can not win the election. Not here or anywhere else. He needs to bring the political struggle in Ukraine beyond the limits of the quasi-legitimate process of presidential and parliamentary elections, to transfer rivalry to a force-based plane. But this must be done in such a way that Poroshenko could not be accused of deliberately disrupting the elections.
The West is extremely sensitive to the Ukrainian elections, and anyone who openly attacks them will become the enemy of the West. And all the elite, all the bureaucracy and all the power structures will turn away from the enemy of the West in Ukraine. Not for this, they collected a fortune for a penny and took them to the West in order to fall under sanctions, as servants of the “criminal regime”, “bloody dictatorship”, and to lose everything they had gained through their ‘work’.
That is, the breakdown in the power spin should occur as if by itself and in spite of Poroshenko’s “peacekeeping” efforts.
Let’s see what he’s doing to bring this about.
First, he provokes Russia to use weapons against the Ukrainian military, disguising this provocation as a normal border incident in allegedly disputed waters. Notice that Poroshenko would have received much more corpses if he sent a couple of brigades across the Russian border. They would have been utilized with the help of artillery and aviation, but Russian troops would not have gone across the border to Kiev.
Why did he not do that? Because a clear attack on Russian territory or even on the DPR / LPR would not have been possible to sell to the West as a disproportionate reaction of Russia to an accidental incident. In the first case, Peter Alekseevich would be asked why he sent troops across the Russian border. In the second, why violated the Minsk truce.
Even the reaction of the West to the provocation in the Kerch Strait was not as acute as Poroshenko had calculated, rather indifferent. I think that is why the Verkhovna Rada became bold and did not let martial law be introduced for 60 days throughout the country and to cancel the elections. So, even in the incident, in the disputed (in Kiev’s opinion, with which the West agrees) waters, the West suspected Peter Alekseyevich’s personal interest.
In this sense, the provocation of interfaith conflict and even religious war is the last card in the sleeve of Poroshenko. Therefore, he is in a hurry with the “unification congress of the mummers”, so he goes on outright violations of the law, engaging the SBU in the process of “persuading” the bishops, priests and parishioners of the UOC MP to take part in the Poroshenko play.
After all, it is clear that behind the scenes intimidation, persuasion and bribery would give Peter Alekseevich more chances for success. People could pretend that they did not break down under pressure and were not flattered by the bribe, but always strove for autocephaly. But in Poroshenko’s performance, any self-respecting person, even if he was out of mental weakness and was ready to retreat for fear or self-interest, will be afraid to do it explicitly, incurring eternal shame.
Evil is always always dressed in good, because it wants to be attractive. It is common for a person to even subconsciously strive for the love and respect of others. Poroshenko leaves the traitors of the UOC-MP nothing but the eternal shame and ambiguous (subordinate) position in the new structure. Do you think by chance? And before, why were there no such “accidents”?
Because Poroshenko does not need the consent of the UOC-MP to participate in the Varfolomeevsky Sabbath, even negotiations are not needed, and he does not need autocephaly. He needs a conflict. Open and powerful conflict. Therefore, he violates all the laws divine and human. Feeling right, the Orthodox should begin open resistance to the godless and illegitimate authorities, even violating their own laws.
It is this – brutal power confrontation throughout Ukraine with a lot of blood that Poroshenko needs in order to legitimize the rejection of pseudo-democratic elections and go to an open dictatorship, for the sake of extending the agony of his regime. He has no other option.
Therefore, the congress was scheduled for December 15th (martial law ends on December 25 and one must have time to unleash a new phase of the civil war before it ends). Therefore, Poroshenko is not afraid that the opposition will be able to legally disavow his actions. It is important for him that the West believes that the UOC-MP is “Putin’s fifth column,” and attacked the Ukrainian state.
I actually did not believe this at first, but I could not avoid looking at the steps being taken by the regime. The West cannot allow that Bartholomew has been drawn into the Ukrainian crisis and sacrificed his authority in the Orthodox world only in the end to lose the fight for Ukraine to the UOC-MP. Moreover, if the Orthodox uprising for the faith wins, it is not Poroshenko’s regime that will collapse, but the pro-Western regime in Ukraine in any version. Poroshenko reasonably believes that by provoking the Orthodox to resist, he will be able to force the West to support the extension of his powers, as the lesser of the evils, from the point of view of Washington, London and Brussels.
I think that even if Poroshenko succeeds, he will only prolong his agony for a couple of months, after which his own comrades will tear him to pieces. He is too greedy, arrogant, deceitful and hateful, and the dictator of him is about the same as the chairman of an AA meeting. But Peter Alekseevich has nowhere to retreat. Apparently, he is not even taken to prison in The Hague. That is, the question is not whether they tear him apart, but how to push this “wonderful moment” as far as possible.
As a rat driven into a corner, fighting to extend his useless life for an extra few minutes, Poroshenko had already thrown everything into the furnace of this struggle, including the family. Defeat for him is death, and victory will write off everything. And though the chances of winning are illusory, hope dies last.
But he is dangerous.
translated by and for FRN