On Wednesday, the events in Venezuela shook the world. Many wondered if January 23rd marked the beginning of the end of the presidency of Nicolas Maduro and the beginning of a new chapter of American interventionism.
Here are 5 reasons why it is unlikely that this drama will come to the denouement that the mainstream media so much shouted about.
“Interim President” … Who, what?
On Wednesday, amid massive anti-government actions, the United States and a number of Latin American states, along with Canada and some regional organizations, such as the Organization of American States, recognized the self-proclaimed leader of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido, as the “interim president” of Venezuela.
However, a 35-year-old member of the opposition National Assembly cannot simply snap his fingers and take the presidency, even if a number of influential countries in the region or around the world give their approval. Such a step would simply contradict the Constitution and international law.
Guaido fell into the fragmented world of opposition lawmakers in 2015, and only in the last couple of months from a relatively unknown figure did he suddenly become a person who is in the spotlight at the national and international levels.
Judging by his actions, there are no signs that his appeals for a coup would be more successful than the numerous unsuccessful attempts of the opposition to seize power after the coup d’état in 2002.
Venezuela is not alone in the international arena; a number of powerful countries have refused to support the United States, which do not wish to recognize the elected President Nicolas Maduro as the legitimate leader of the country.
Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Mexico, and a number of other countries made it clear that, in spite of everything, their usual business relations with their Venezuelan colleagues would continue.
Officials of Great Britain, Germany, Spain and the EU are on the side of the opposition; nevertheless, Brussels has not yet made an official decision on this issue.
Such a split suggests that Venezuela is not as isolated as the United States would like to think.
The military is well armed, organized and ready for battle
Despite several outbreaks of rebellion in the armed forces, the military leadership of the country remains on the side of President Maduro.
On Thursday, Defense Minister Padrino Lopez spoke to the people and unveiled a “criminal US plan that threatens the sovereignty and independence of the nation.” He urged Venezuelans not to start a civil war, stressing that he was on the side of “our commander, citizen Nicolas Maduro.”
Venezuela’s well-armed military will play a decisive role in this drama. They use modern helicopters, airplanes, armored vehicles and the latest AK-103 submachine guns from Russia. In addition to the fact that the armed forces consist of 120 thousand people, there are also armed militias in the ranks of the civilian armed forces.
Do not underestimate the support of the government by the population.
President Maduro has hundreds of thousands, if not millions of ill-wishers, however, the elected leader has as many, if not more, supporters. [Over 9 million voted for Maduro in the election last May – ed]
If it were not for such support, the government would have fallen long ago. Thanks to various legal maneuvers, the leader enjoyed popular support in order to neutralize the mass opposition against the background of the rapid growth of inflation and recession.
But despite all this, Maduro’s popularity and enthusiasm with which the brand of socialism continues to inspire poor countries allowed his government to win the hearts and minds of its most exhausted supporters. Despite its shortcomings, most Venezuelans will not take part in the US war against their own government.
If there is anything that will unite a fragile nationalist country, it is the aggression of a foreign enemy.
US will not risk a war
After the catastrophes in Iraq and Afghanistan, are the US ready to risk so-called “humanitarian intervention” against a country that has weapons stocks twice the size of Iraq, and whose collapse will cause social instability in the whole hemisphere?
In this video, enthusiastic members of the Venezuelan military promise Washington “Latin American Vietnam” in the event of a US invasion:
The danger that the United States will fall into a trap from which they cannot escape is quite real. And Washington hardly needs such problems, especially at a time when such rivals as China are growing, and the world is watching with curiosity about the ongoing collapse during the suspension of government activities.
And although the US may prefer to “remain a shadow leader,” managing such countries as Colombia and Brazil, however, Colombian President Ivan Duque Marquez has not yet shown readiness for military intervention, and the new, tough Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro seems more intimidated by the prospect of war, not motivated.
The United States may impose sanctions with reckless disregard for international law, but it is doubtful that they would be willing to bear military, political or financial expenses as a result of a full-scale war against the people of Venezuela.
Washington should know by now that to start a war is one thing, and ending is another.
from ktovkurse – translated by and for FRN