What are Russia’s Chances of Winning a War with NATO?


MOSCOW – In terms of the size and equipment of military equipment, the Russian Air Force will be able to successfully resist the troops of the United States and its allies in the context of a local conflict in the territory of a third country. This opinion was expressed by the Vice President of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences (RARAN) for information policy, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov.

The expert noted that in the event of a local confrontation, NATO would be able to use about 2.5 thousand airplanes (1.1–1.3 thousand combat), about 1.5 thousand helicopters and 500-600 UAVs.

In addition, opponents will be able to use about 1.5–2 thousand cruise missiles, Sivkov writes in his article for the Military Industrial Courier .

In his opinion, such a grouping of US and NATO forces will be involved in a campaign lasting from 2-3 weeks to two months or more. In this case, it will be carried out in several air offensive operations (VNO).

“The first one is key. Its failure to cause substantial losses to the air force will most likely force the enemy to abandon the escalation of the conflict,” the expert believes.

Based on an analysis of past wars, the doctor of military sciences believes that the typical All-Union VNO will take place in 5–9 massed air and missile strikes within five days.

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In addition, each attack implies an echelon of air defense defense (air defense, 20–45% of the total number of aircraft), a strike (45–70%) and additional intelligence (less than 10%).

VNO also includes cruise missile attacks, whose number will be at least 50% of the number of aircraft, and drone attacks (30–40%).

The main factor for the successful reflection of such an operation Sivkov calls the creation and maintenance of combat stability of the all-high-altitude radar field.

The expert noted that the Russian Air Force has the necessary number of heavy fighters, attack aircraft, strategic aircraft and combat helicopters to participate in a local conflict with the United States and its allies.

However, the Russian Federation should increase the number of light fighters, transport helicopters, long-range and reconnaissance aircraft, as well as long-range radar detection and control.

In the event of a protracted global war, Sivkov believes that the advantage will be on the side of NATO.

On February 5, Finland called the tank army of the Russian Federation a “NATO nightmare” and expressed confidence that in the event of the start of the third world war, Moscow would win a quick and crushing victory over the alliance .

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