CARACAS – The self-procalimed “president” of Venezuela, Juan Guaido, proclaimed also by the United States of America, has just been deprived of the immunity which governmental deputies enjoy. According to the decision of the National Constituent Assembly of the country, the pursuit and possible arrest of Guaido is now officially sanctioned by law.
Previously, he enjoyed such immunities, as FRN previously covered based on a expert legal opinion from Caracas, it would have been problematic for the Venezuelan government to break its own rules, laws, regulations, and past-practice in the case of Guaido. Such would have been both falling into a staged provocation in which Guaido would have appeared as a martyr or hero, and also would have fulfilled, or reified the claim that the Venezuelan authorities were acting contrary to constitutional law.
Through restraint and observing the law, the Venezuelan authorities demonstrated that they are ruled by laws, derived from the people, protected by the constitution, and that the laws are not ruled by the authorities.
Furthermore, it was important to understand that in Color Revolution scenarios, slowing-down events works to the disadvantage of destabilization. The speeding-up of events creates confused feedback loops, opportunities for chaos, where new ‘X’ factors can emerge, and outside actors can better manipulate events and outcomes.
The slow-burn of Guaido’s demise has been an effective utilization of the theory and practice of the counter-color strategy.
As stated by Venezuela’s President of the Constituent Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, Guaido may be held accountable for illegally traveling abroad, while the court forbade him to leave the country.
Abrams and Pompeo had hoped and planned that the Venezuelan authorities would act impulsively, and arrest Guaido upon his re-entry into the country, and otherwise behave according to their own Anglo-centric biases, projections, and prejudices regarding the behaviour of ‘regimes’. In other words, Abrams and Pompeo believed that Venezuela would behave as a ‘regime’ because they themselves imagine Venezuela to be a regime, and then superimpose ‘regime discourse’ onto the Bolivarian Republic. Instead, Venezuela demonstrated that it is a constitutional republic.
That Guaido was able to roam around Venezuela, making public appearances where he was introduced as ‘President of Venezuela’, and continued to promise ‘humanitarian aid’, only showed him to be increasingly engaged in some surreal or media stunt. This charade became increasingly annoying to the Venezuelan public at large, his cries and declarations that he was being persecuted as public enemy number one, did not match the fact that he continued to roam freely with his absurd self-proclamation of right to rule, and unfulfilled promises of ‘humanitarian aid’.
Currently, Juan Guaido continues to hide from justice. According to his now-standard interpretation of Venezuela’s right to arrest or detain suspects, the “Venezuelan authorities can kidnap” him.
“You know how this works. This is not prosecution, but an inquisition,” he told reporters.
Meanwhile, he is losing public support. Before his self-proclamation to the status of president of Venezuela, less than 18% of the public could identify his name as a politician.
Mass-publics instinctively look for immediate solutions when conditions appear dire, opting often for drastic solutions to serious matters. But as the radicalized moment begins to fade, the irrational moment based in emotions which by and large tend to eventually exit the subject, or find expression elsewhere, and the sense of urgency, now-ness, and immediateness is drowned out over the passing of time, the possibility for the seizure of power soon evaporates.
The arrival of Russian and Chinese humanitarian aid, the thwarting of the U.S use of various forms of economic and social sabotage, and realization that Guaido will be disarmed by his own apparent uselessness, are all factors that have led to a stabilization of the situation in Venezuela.
Now that the Guaido moment has passed, without any results he can show, he has lost whatever support he had built in the irrational moment, which is now a historical matter. He is now more vulnerable than at any time before, and could be arrested without much in the way of a local or national sense of indignation from the people.