Provoking Russia and the aggravation of the situation: RAND [Directives to Poles]
By Mateusz Piskorski
By Mateusz Piskorski – American policy is formed by large institutions and formally independent funds. That is why it is able to respond to all global processes much more quickly and efficiently than the politics of other countries, based on the principle of a clear division of responsibilities between the public and private sectors. One of the major analytical centers, responsible for US foreign policy, is the RAND Corporation.
In the context of recent developments in world politics, it is necessary to consider the role of this structure from the point of view of not only Russia but also other European countries. Undoubtedly, I can say that RAND is one of the most influential institutions guiding the policies of Washington, although, of course, not all American politicians share the bellicose rhetoric of this structure. However, if they want to perform, think and plan overseas the hawks should definitely familiarize themselves with RAND’s analytical work, which always contains more specific recommendations.
What is the RAND Corporation? Its founders in 1948 were representatives of the military-industrial complex that during the Cold War effectively sought to increase the military budget. Then RAND became a formally independent entity, but as an analytical centre worked mainly on the armed forces, intelligence agencies and other government agencies. Its staff were not only well-known scientists (Francis Fukuyama), but also former politicians (Condoleezza rice, Donald Rumsfeld), almost all adhering to the neoconservative ideology and convinced that the United States has the right to decide the fate of the entire planet. In America for many years, in accordance with the said ideology, the process of delegation of state powers to private entities, privatization of some state functions.
So, RAND is kind of an independent centre, but performs the functions of state institutions, while receiving funding from them. In 2018, according to the financial report of the organization, the center received grants totaling $ 345 million, of which $ 282 million are grants from Federal agencies of the United States. At such a scale it is not surprising that RAND employs over 1 800 people — experts from different areas. In addition to the headquarters in California, is a branch of the organization in many other States as well as in Europe (Brussels and Cambridge) and Australia.
The usefulness of the RAND to the outside world is that the center periodically in the reports exposes the true purpose of American politics, thus depriving many illusions. In 2019, RAND published another study, and in fact the training manual on how to weaken Russia, and eventually in practice — how to destroy Russian statehood at least in the existing format. Almost nothing new here, as these plans have been done by many American institutions, inspired by the doctrine of Zbigniew Brzezinski and others. The report states openly including on the need for internal destabilization of the situation in Russia (see the riots and the attempts of non-recognition of the election results), create a demographic (provoking the outflow of the population) and economic (capital outflows and sanctions) crises and the involvement of Russia in the arms race and provoking it on the international level.
Interestingly, a significant role in “training manual” and given to other countries, including European ones, which, according to the authors of the RAND should silently contribute to the American hegemonic strategy. Among them, of course, and Poland, which, you might say, receives from the RAND Corporation specific instructions.
One of the main objectives of the policy of confrontation between Russia, according to U.S. neo-conservatives, is provoking and worsening of the economic crisis. So RAND not only offers extension and strengthening of sanctions imposed in 2014, but as a complementary measure calls for the attempts of confining the import of Russian hydrocarbons to Europe. A significant role in this plan identifies the official Warsaw. Poland should block all attempts to create a new transport infrastructure leading from Russia to the West (attempted suspension of the construction of “Nord stream — 2”). Russian gas, the authors suggest, is to be replaced by American liquefied gas, which of course is much more expensive. The Polish government is rapidly implementing this program, offering itself as a hub for the export of the imported U.S. gas to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
The next task has been performed by Warsaw consistently for many years. It is the support of color revolutions in the former Soviet space, especially Ukraine and Belarus. With Ukraine is clear: the presence of Polish politicians during the last “Maidan” and the subsequent support for politicians who came to power after the coup is obvious. About Belarus analysts of the RAND Corporation have no illusions: under the current leadership the country will remain a strategic partner of Moscow. Accordingly, the only solution is to overthrow Lukashenko, what should contribute to the policy of Poland. After a rather brief period of attempts to establish relations with Minsk, Warsaw once again is talking about the need for regime change in the neighboring state.
Further, experts from RAND suggest the leadership of the United States increase its military presence in the so-called eastern flank of NATO. Purpose: provoking Russia and aggravating the situation. The militarization of Poland is observed as a minimum in 2014, and especially after the appearance of the bases of US forces in the country. But analysts from the California center offer more: to consider the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of Poland. Now it is not known whether it was casually mentioned in an interview by Polish foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz.
Of course, from Poland and other regional “allies” is required in the report of the RAND increased spending on arms, preferably American-made. That approach is based on the whole program of modernization of the armed forces of Poland. The only problem is the military buildup in the Baltic Sea. While the Polish Navy is almost nonexistent, but of course the plans of its reconstruction are underway, although there is no enough money. RAND argues that the United States with the help of “allies” will actually block the Russian Baltic fleet, but it will not happen soon.
Everyone understands that the foreign policy of Poland is defined in Washington. Nevertheless, the analysis of the RAND report allows you to clearly define the plans for that part of the US administration, which is configured to escalate a new Cold War. The US is unable to pursue this strategy without the participation of its regional satellites. But what can happen to those who refuse to fulfill their assigned role? We can read about this in detail in those chapters of the RAND report, which are essentially instructing the preparation of the change of undesirable regimes illegally.