WASHINGTON, D.C. – Charles Ortel, Wall Street analyst, says it is unlikely that the Democratic party wins the upcoming presidential election, even though mainstream media and academic “thought-leaders” are stridently against Donald Trump.
Speaking in an interview with FNA, Charles Ortel said, “Both established parties in the US have propelled us into wars and military action. This explains, in part, why Americans are increasingly rejecting the failed military (and economic) policies of these parties, choosing instead to vote as independents.”
Charles Ortel is an investor, writer, economist and geopolitics analyst. He appears frequently in the print, radio and TV media and discusses dangers posed by structural changes in the global economy. Mr. Ortel graduated from Harvard Business School.
Below is the full text of the interview:
Q: How do Democrats claim they are against wars, while no president from the Democratic party, similar to the Republican presidents, has ever prevented the wars the US has waged in four corners of the world?
A: The Obama Administration destabilized numerous foreign nations, particularly in the Middle East. Both established parties in the US have propelled us into wars and military action. This explains, in part, why Americans are increasingly rejecting the failed military (and economic) policies of these parties, choosing instead to vote as independents.
Some problems are intractable, but many problems do get solved, short of going to war or using force. As President Eisenhower warned in January 1961, the “military-industrial complex” is tough to control, and actually can gain promoting conflict. That complex has widened to include other promoters of “unregulated globalism” including academia, media, and financial investors.
I believe Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with political insiders and truly seek profound reforms that will lessen the scale and police the corruption of the “Deep State” so much in evidence particularly from September 2001 forward.
Q. Do you believe the Democrats are able to address the challenges inside their own party?
A: In the 1960s, when President Johnson sold the “Great Society” to Americans, military spending was vast in comparison to spending on social welfare programs, as you can see by looking through data found in the National Income and Product Account Tables available online through the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Then the US economy was also vast, while nations including China and India were not engaged in world markets.
Since 1989, policies of both parties failed most workers by allowing, even encouraging, businesses to replace expensive workers with less expensive foreign employees. Meanwhile, social welfare spending soared. By 2002, outsourcing started to become less interesting than replacing human labor with advanced machine-based solutions, a course that has only accelerated.
Because most Democrats remain rooted in their past and refuse to examine evident economic realities, they are not capable of promoting private-sector job growth. Instead, they attract voters with handouts that are tougher and tougher to finance.
Independent-minded Americans and conservative Republicans correctly view traditional Democrats as untethered to modern reality. Testament to inherent weakness among Democrats is their standard-bearer, Joe Biden, a failed relic, and longtime DC insider with no private sector experience and suspicious wealth.
Q: Trump has stoked outrage between local supporters and international allies since he took office; but, do you believe anger at Trump will help Democrats win the upcoming election?
A: To handicap 2020 election results, one must examine situations in key states, remembering that mainstream media and academic “thought-leaders” are stridently anti-Trump.
Polls can be highly misleading as they proved to be in 2016. First, respondents are wary of pollsters and of telling their true feelings to strangers. Second, good polls focus upon likely voters, not the broader class of registered voters as many registered voters do not vote. Third, polls must judge what proportion of Democrats, Republicans and independents to include and frequently over sample Democrats. Finally, polls can manipulate voter preferences by asking questions about issues that slant against an incumbent or a challenger.
Anger is seldom a winning political platform throughout American history. Moreover, slogans and empty promises brought us an Obama Administration whose record is increasingly seen as woeful. Much can happen between now and 3 November 2020, including a deeper focus upon Joe Biden’s actual record and his family’s suspicious prosperity. Unless Democrats reject their “soak the rich”, big-spending impulses, and craft credible, modern platform points, I believe they will suffer again in 2020, possibly more than they did in 2016.