Bipolarity of Donbass leadership is not accidental. Each pole (as in the Kremlin) has its own purpose. One shows a willingness to compromise and flexibility, the second … makes the efforts of the first futile. This structure is in fact copied from Moscow (with specificity) and it is not a surprise. It worked in Russia for 15 years quite successfully. The West was hoping for some towers of the Kremlin (thinking that everything is under control) and therefore did not strangle the country’s rise in the very beginning (and incidentally still hoping). And the country meanwhile is on its way to formation of an independent state (not legally, but in reality). And the end of this formation is visible. In reality Russia is in the home stretch of this process, which is very worrisome for the United States.
But back to Donbass. Bipolarity first bared fruit at the referendum of May 11. Kiev knowing for sure that this is the idea of Donetsk oligarchs did not take it seriously. But Strelkov’s coup sobered them up, though too late. It was the first boo-boo of Kiev-Washington axis. And not the last. The biggest loss was the Southern cauldron and the games with Bolotov, Pushilin and others. Kiev was sure that nothing will happen and … made a mistake. Bad mistake. Strelkov and all those around him were the embodiment of inflexibility of the militia. The other pole (by the way, partially artificially created by Moscow) just had their victory (Amvrosievka). These swings allow Donbass and of course Moscow to maneuver the intricacies of political webs cleverly placed by the West. It works for now. Europe is no longer in the same camp with the United States. And its self-interest is pushing it into Putin’s arms. And this is a major victory, the last to date.
And here’s another thing. Everyone is saying that Russia through the hands of Zakharchenko betrayed Novorossia. Supposedly Zakharchenko is the saviour of Ukraine, etc. And even ukro-media coined an expression – ‘the uncontrollable field commanders’ (as opposed to Zakharchenko), who supposedly are guilty of disrupting the Minsk accords. And the interesting thing is that these commanders have descended on the exact area, where an offensive is needed, but not allowed. Debaltsevo. Bezler was there from day one. Mozgovoi joined later, but also a while ago. And Kozitsin appeared there relatively recently, but already made a big splash. In fact his troops quietly took up positions around the dreaded Debaltsevo Ledge (semi-cauldron). And are doing reconaissance of the enemy. And when they strike (l think after October 26th elections, to be politically proper), Zakharchenko will shrug his shoulders and say: “But I had nothing to do with it. They are uncontrollable!” And then the swing will go the other way. In general a ‘swing’ is the best political tool. All entities that do not implement it fast become targets. The two-party system of the United States is an example of a swing. Both parties essentially play one game, but it is fascinating to watch.
P.S. What trick will they come up with next time I do not know, but their imagination seems to be working. So they will come up with something.
PPS And by the way, I have been long tormented by this question. For a month already ‘voentorg’ has been closed, according to Putin-bashers. But where did the ‘uncontrollables’ got their ‘tools’ and ‘expandables’, if there was no trophies last month?
PPPS Unfortunately, once again, attempts to exploit this bipolarity do exist. And they still worry me. We are all human beings and have our weaknesses, which the “third force” (although it is really the “first force”) will try to exploit. (This is my response to those, who have been asking me about the “third force”. If you don’t get it, it’s not my fault).
Answers from @yurasumy to questions in the comments:
– Why do you think Europe is not with the US?
– Watch their actions, and not words. Never believe in the words of politicians. Firs of all, there is a difference between reality and your TV. The toughening of visas by Poland for Ukrainians. Several months of no financing for the junta. Sanctions at the top are not followed at the bottom. And the governments are enforcing it. There are many other indicators.
I have been fighting for half a year online with the view that the situation in Ukraine could be resolved with one swing. But people stubbornly believe in that. With one swing (for example in April) situation could be irrevocably lost. I’m glad that didn’t happen. And the fact that the majority of citizens believe in simple solutions and think that they are betrayed … so it’s OK. In Ukraine they believe that since July. In general this is a normal pattern. My stay outside the borders of Ukraine only added me confidence that everything is under control and the game is long. And the fact that 90% of the population don’t see it …. I repeat this is normal.
Translated by Kristina Rus